Another View of the Dollar Carry Trade

The slightly upward sloping channel needs one more little pop to fill. I saw a great chart of this earlier today...but I think the trend lines needed to reflect the channel. Nice moving average resistance above also.

those of you with stockcharts may want to watch this chart live, enclosed is the link to the live chart. live chart

Market observations

Below are some great charts that I was discussing with Matt Fraily at breakpointtrades.com. I highly recommend that you sign up for the newsletter using the form on the side of my blog. Matt, run's a very high quality service and has some really good automated/mechanical systems that are not available anywhere else. We work together on a lot of them. There will be some great products coming from the site related to mechanical systems and proprietary indicators that will be out soon...it's definitely worth a look.

Clearly the dollar pattern is maturing nicely and being confirmed by the inverse indexes. These inverse indexes are the 1x unleveraged versions. They reflect the market patterns much better plus they do not lose 50% of their value due to manipulation and slippage.

The charts are very well commented...I will be posting more prior to the open

Currency Non Confirmations

Below is a chart of the EURO/Yen and the Dollar/Yen. 

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What is interesting about this chart is the non-confirmations. The times that highs were confirmed by both currency pairs and the ES, resulted in further upside. But non-confirmations by both currencies (highlighted with the Green Bars) resulted in dramatic moves. 

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Also, the USDJPY has given much earlier warnings that not everything is ok in wonderland on many occasions. Trend line breaks are very prescient.

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This is not a scientific analysis...just an anecdotal one in that we are currently experiencing a non-confirmation by both currencies of new highs in the SP500.

This is an ominous sign...are dramatic results to come?

click on the chart for a clearer view