Saturday, May 29, 2010

Funny when Russian Television has WAY more open media than its US counterparts

Maybe the US press can continue to promote the 5,000 barrels a day theory regarding our oil spill while suppress professional testimony several weeks ago that suggests its more like 95,000 barrels a day. I wonder how many other facts are being managed...

Friday, May 28, 2010

Is your money safe?

EURO system for the month

SP500 system setup for a short

Despite the exits from the longs yesterday...many of the long-term models are not yet short...however, they are setting up for that likelyhood and this presents a likely huge opportunity. I would like to state for the record that IF these systems trigger short...its most likely the end of this grand-puff-job perpetrated by the fed and their cronies. In case you need a little sunlight on that read below:
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also active in currency markets, German Economics Minister Rainer Bruederle said Friday.
His comments come on the heels of remarks made by his Swiss counterpart who said that the Swiss National Bank purchased euros to buttress the single currency.
"It is a regular procedure of central banks," to intervene in currency markets, Bruederle said. "It is not a secret," that central banks have a foreign exchange rate target, he added.
Bruederle said "eruptive" movements have to be avoided. He previously said that China holds 25 percent of its foreign exchange reserves in euros. 
If the fed feels that they need to participate in the currency markets...treasury markets, bond markets, derivative markets - why not stock markets - stock market futures no less? Where will they stop? In any case, the one thing that is clear is that the Fed will lose...the main question is when? Everything in my system work is saying its pretty soon - if not now. A rally is possible, not necessary.

While it is unlikely for these systems to miss a big short...the fact that the market fundementals are so poor and the units that are used to price these markets (ie currencies) so flawed...we can not under-estimate the risks of there being relatively little follow through to the upside. Which ever way the winds decide to blow, I will try to keep some general market triggers available through my blog. It is just too much work for me to publish every signal, but it is important for me that there is some reasonable information available regarding this potentailly dangerous setup in the markets.

Currently, the only systems still with a view that this may be a dip are the Small Cap systems. That could change in a jiffy however and I take the recent exits from long positions VERY seriously.

SP500 Earnings from 1936

With first-quarter earnings basically in the books (99% of S&P 500 companies have reported for Q1 2010), today's chart provides some long-term perspective to the current earnings environment by focusing on 12-month, as reported S&P 500 earnings. Today's chart illustrates how earnings declined over 92% from its Q3 2007 peak to Q1 2009 low -- the largest decline on record (the data goes back to 1936). Since its Q1 2009 low, S&P 500 earnings have surged (up over 700%) and currently come in at a level that has only been exceeded during the latter years of the dot-com and credit bubbles.

Update and Overview

I wanted to point out that most of the systems are looking short - all have sold their long positions and some have already begun short positions on this rally. Unlike previous rallies off of selloffs this one is setting up short so far for the systems...just a word of caution regarding having too much optimism relating to this market.

We have touched logical resistance, returned and so far found resistance at the mean zone and the Trend following analytics have turned to favor short.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

TF Daily Swing LR Exits

Along with all the other equity systems that were long...the TF and UWM systems are flat exiting a very nice trade indeed.

BGU and SSO Tigger Shorts

RVS Index Strategies still looking to sell on the close

the only name not mentioned is the one we need to worry about - JPM

JPM has a huge exposure to this crisis and their 79 trillion in deriviatives, fraudulent marking and counterparty risk issues will facilitate a nice collapse the world economies into chaos.

Strategies Update

Looking to sell long positions at the close...this is not confirmed but looks probably at this point.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

RVS Systems Update

I apologize for not posting earlier...I was out most of the day doing errands due to an emergency.

EURO discounted satire

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

End of day setups

Possible long entry at the close

Euro Target is still 1.40...

Please refer to my last post on the subject...the setup implied a retest that sucked in all the Euro shorts and then bankrupts them on the reversion to control.

EURO HLA Continues

CL HLA 1 minute trades

This curve represents $10,000 futures trades in the CL for the last 2 and a half months with a $150,000 account. Max trade is $80,000 and PL lock is not enabled.

EURO system keeps on trucking


EURO 1 minute HLA system

Gorgeous trades again. No losers...

Monday, May 24, 2010

CL Trades today...via HLA model

The HLA model is designed to trade crazy volatile markets like the currencies and Oil, ironically it works well on short term charts for precisely the same reasons as it works on currencies as shown above. It appears that short term charts trade very much like the longer-term charts of currencies...The system is averaging consistent daily returns with an average trade size of around $19,000 and a maximum trade size of around $100,000.

No System trades on close

EURO 1 minute HLA system

Up great since 6 pm on Sunday...8 hours...WOWSA!

I would like to point out that I am assuming nearly $50,000 per month of slippage and $38,000 in commissions. In reality, I get much less slippage than that in the Euro contract which is one of the reasons I like to trade it.

EURO 1 minute system trades tonight

Up over $5,000 tonight so far.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

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