32 minutes ago
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Fed Engineered Front Running...in the US Casino's
Fed inflated to the edge...good to see that Stockton get's it and is warning people. The market is a discounting mechanism that should see the limited ability for the Fed to attempt its hyper-inflation bank balancesheet pumping action...Discounting in the markets tend to start to happen 3 to 3.5 months ahead of an event.
After BURNanke's crazy response to his commodity inflation operations triggering unrest...he will not be able to continue with free reign to buy, buy, buy...so his QE may actually be retired well ahead of schedule...especially with insane lies and incorrect facts that the chairletan of the Fed used in his answer.
Not only will the propped up risk asset bubble explode and the money created by the fed's QE and special operations simply vanish...but we will be left with unknown and highly risky smoldering coals in destabilised nations that will likely give us some very large new headaches and bills.
After BURNanke's crazy response to his commodity inflation operations triggering unrest...he will not be able to continue with free reign to buy, buy, buy...so his QE may actually be retired well ahead of schedule...especially with insane lies and incorrect facts that the chairletan of the Fed used in his answer.
Not only will the propped up risk asset bubble explode and the money created by the fed's QE and special operations simply vanish...but we will be left with unknown and highly risky smoldering coals in destabilised nations that will likely give us some very large new headaches and bills.
Large Explosion at Egyptian/Israel Natural Gas Pipeline...
The situation is becoming more and more conflicted. And we have BURNanke to thank for providing some fuel and a lot of sparks that are triggering revolusions in 6 countries as I write this. Conviently the general media is choosing not to report budding protests/uprisings in Yemen, Morroco, Sudan, Lebanon, Syria...
There has been a massive explosion at a natural gas plant in the Sinai desert, along the pipeline from Egypt to Israel and Jordan, according to Global Post.
The state-run Middle East News Agency blamed "subversive elements" for the explosion.
The attack was likely carried out by Beduoin armed with rocket-propelled grenades, who carried out a confirmed attack on a security headquarters in the area, according to the WSJ.
The pipeline transmits over one quarter of Israel's natural gas supply and was the basis of an alliance between the two countries since 1979. In 2005, Israel signed a 15-year contract eventually worth 1 trillion cubic feet -- nearly all of Israel's natural gas supply by 2014.
Supplies have been disrupted because of the attack, but will be resumed soon, according to the WSJ.
But the pipeline remains vulnerable -- especially if the same people who attacked it come to power after Mubarak.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/egypt-israel-pipeline-2011-2#ixzz1D6JFKzdi
Friday, February 4, 2011
A view into an analysts mind...
I had the fortune of being invited to an investor conference at the Four Seasons in Miami last night. It was a great commentary about the psychosis of markets and trading that I wanted to post about it.
Firstly, the conference reaffirmed the extremes and fragility of investor sentiment for me. Analysts, including the Deutsche Bank one, can not find a reason to sell this market only reasons to buy it. Those reasons are interestingly based more on a trend that is motion continuing that motion than foundational logic. The reality is that almost all of the analysis that I see people using represents a short snap shot of time, as in 25 years with just few incidents of the criteria being validated against the data or outright colored glasse distortions. For example, at the conference the subject of the 1.2 trillion in the cash reserves on corporate America's balance sheet was discussed. The concept was that this cash would be use for dividend distribution, stock buybacks or investment. The interesting thing is that the impression is that corporations and corporate insiders are buying with abandon already despite the fact that there have been the highest ratios of insider selling to insider buying in history for months and months now. In fact recently there was 1 week where not one share was purchased by a company or insider for an entire week. This does not indicate that people think that shares are priced well or the future economics are compelling. But in bullish mindsets right now, you need only see what you want to see.
I asked the analyst what would happen if there were to be a mindset change with regard to the massive fraud with regard to state and market assets on Banking (especially last institutional) balance sheets? What would that do to the bullish thesis. His response was that "Egypt happened we hit a new high. Iceland happened we hit a new high, Russia got bombed we hit a new high, Greece happened and we hit a new high...This is bullish. maybe we could get a 4 to 5% pullback.". Don't fight the fed was another prevalent theory despite the correct dates on QE1 not being represented on the chart collateral.
Ironically, the results of manipulated markets is that corporate america is losing pricing power and squeezing its margins. People are demanding less and will continue to do so as long as there is no compelling reason to take risks or to buy things. The reality is clear, just as the jobs number was today. We all know that the jobless rate DID NOT decline to 9.0% unless all the jobless who were represented on previous reports were magically erased...ohhh, they were. If this type of manipulation is consistent with the appoach of our leadership then we are not going to build much confidence. But alas, Mr. Bernanke demonstrated the relationship between the truth and policy yesterday and in most of his days or in special circumstances with his outright lies in front of congress and on 60 minutes.
Amazing times that we live in. People in banking, are willing to represent that massive government sanctioned accounting fraud and manipulated markets and marks are foundationally sound for continued allocation to risk assets...
I will kindly hold my short that i took over the last few days with a little more clarity as to the mindset of investors. And its maniacal.
Above is the Dhaka Stock Market Index in Bangladesh which has droped well over 20% so far for no apparent reason. The contraction in credit and debt money is creating fractures, easily dissmissed by bullish analysis...but not by market psychology.
Firstly, the conference reaffirmed the extremes and fragility of investor sentiment for me. Analysts, including the Deutsche Bank one, can not find a reason to sell this market only reasons to buy it. Those reasons are interestingly based more on a trend that is motion continuing that motion than foundational logic. The reality is that almost all of the analysis that I see people using represents a short snap shot of time, as in 25 years with just few incidents of the criteria being validated against the data or outright colored glasse distortions. For example, at the conference the subject of the 1.2 trillion in the cash reserves on corporate America's balance sheet was discussed. The concept was that this cash would be use for dividend distribution, stock buybacks or investment. The interesting thing is that the impression is that corporations and corporate insiders are buying with abandon already despite the fact that there have been the highest ratios of insider selling to insider buying in history for months and months now. In fact recently there was 1 week where not one share was purchased by a company or insider for an entire week. This does not indicate that people think that shares are priced well or the future economics are compelling. But in bullish mindsets right now, you need only see what you want to see.
I asked the analyst what would happen if there were to be a mindset change with regard to the massive fraud with regard to state and market assets on Banking (especially last institutional) balance sheets? What would that do to the bullish thesis. His response was that "Egypt happened we hit a new high. Iceland happened we hit a new high, Russia got bombed we hit a new high, Greece happened and we hit a new high...This is bullish. maybe we could get a 4 to 5% pullback.". Don't fight the fed was another prevalent theory despite the correct dates on QE1 not being represented on the chart collateral.
Ironically, the results of manipulated markets is that corporate america is losing pricing power and squeezing its margins. People are demanding less and will continue to do so as long as there is no compelling reason to take risks or to buy things. The reality is clear, just as the jobs number was today. We all know that the jobless rate DID NOT decline to 9.0% unless all the jobless who were represented on previous reports were magically erased...ohhh, they were. If this type of manipulation is consistent with the appoach of our leadership then we are not going to build much confidence. But alas, Mr. Bernanke demonstrated the relationship between the truth and policy yesterday and in most of his days or in special circumstances with his outright lies in front of congress and on 60 minutes.
Amazing times that we live in. People in banking, are willing to represent that massive government sanctioned accounting fraud and manipulated markets and marks are foundationally sound for continued allocation to risk assets...
I will kindly hold my short that i took over the last few days with a little more clarity as to the mindset of investors. And its maniacal.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
BURNanke...the arrogant fool, the liar and the theif...
Today during Bernanke's speech at the National Press Club, he was asked specifically about Egypt and Tunisia relating to commodity prices and his policies. Mr Bernanke was quick to illustrate that there were on-going stresses in the region. He was quick to indicate that Emerging Market Growth was the main influence on supply and demand which has resulted in more strength in the global economy and higher prices for commodities.
He was quick to point out that in Egypt prices for food really did not go up significantly when priced in Egyptian Pounds. ACCORDING TO THIS ARROGANT PONCE..."PRICES HAVE GONE DOWN or STAYED FLAT when priced in egyptian currency relative to their US denominated prices because:
I almost fell out of my chair when he said this. The only problem for Mr Bernanke with this line of BS is that it is outright deceptive and at best a remarkable mistake in fact knowledge by Mr. Bernanke. In other words BURNAKE FULL ON LIED.
In addition to that TWO unrelated sovereign governments have collapsed in a matter of weeks (a few more are brewing) have collapsed just by happenstance. Distortions of monetary decisions and tools that have been used to implement government policy had nothing to do with it.
The reality is Egyptian currency has in fact been pegged to the US dollar for quite a few years now. The average Egyptian earns $4,000 per year and is now paying $3,800 of that for food and additionally is being attacked with Tear Gas and Weapons made in the same place as the commodity inflation and currency he uses to pay for his on his vital supplies - THE US.
We are indeed manufacturing something in the US. We are manufacturing reasons for people to hate, despise and distrust us. And it all emanates from the lies that the Fed and regulators have allowed to grow out of control on the banking system balance sheets and in the policies they pursue.
He was quick to point out that in Egypt prices for food really did not go up significantly when priced in Egyptian Pounds. ACCORDING TO THIS ARROGANT PONCE..."PRICES HAVE GONE DOWN or STAYED FLAT when priced in egyptian currency relative to their US denominated prices because:
"...as the dollar has weakened their currency (The Egyptian Pound) has gone up" - BurnankeTherefore the real prices they are paying for commodities are not in fact reflected in the dollar prices of the commodities. Right? So, Mr. Burnanke, its okay that only American's pay through the nose for commodities if you can come up with a way to pretent that the Egyptians are getting a discount to obfuscate the failure of your policies?
click on image below for the video
appears as a flash swf file
I almost fell out of my chair when he said this. The only problem for Mr Bernanke with this line of BS is that it is outright deceptive and at best a remarkable mistake in fact knowledge by Mr. Bernanke. In other words BURNAKE FULL ON LIED.
In addition to that TWO unrelated sovereign governments have collapsed in a matter of weeks (a few more are brewing) have collapsed just by happenstance. Distortions of monetary decisions and tools that have been used to implement government policy had nothing to do with it.
The reality is Egyptian currency has in fact been pegged to the US dollar for quite a few years now. The average Egyptian earns $4,000 per year and is now paying $3,800 of that for food and additionally is being attacked with Tear Gas and Weapons made in the same place as the commodity inflation and currency he uses to pay for his on his vital supplies - THE US.
We are indeed manufacturing something in the US. We are manufacturing reasons for people to hate, despise and distrust us. And it all emanates from the lies that the Fed and regulators have allowed to grow out of control on the banking system balance sheets and in the policies they pursue.
Bernanke...the only "worst person of the world" not lampooned by the Obermann show
Bernanke is one dangerous intellectual cronyist. The guy has accomplished the goals I set forth in my "ENDING WELL" analysis last year. He has raised input prices, lowered output prices, decreased demand and increased debt. The concept that you could get paid a salary and bonus to do that is amazing. Even a monkey would have a hard time accomplishing those particular results with just pure luck. To accomplish this type of feat, you must rationalize, intellectualize and totally revolutionise financial and behavioural theory. Then you must use the result to make the wrong decision at every step...or more than likely the perfect decision for a few people and disastrous one for Mesopotamians, Europeans and Americans.
What is amazing is that this guy, gets "Time - Man of the Year" and never gets any attention from Obermann's "Worst Person of the World" segment...Obermann can only focus on partisan politics. America has been duped - by the media, by the politicians and by the regulators and financial elites. What a sad day it is that the deed has been done. Bernanke has accomplished his goal of assuring a crisis of mammoth and many more orders of magnitude greater than 2007 and 2008.
Whatever the man is smoking, I think we have a right to know. Below is an excerpt of the outright and easily debunked manipulations that Mr. Burnake spewed today:
What is amazing is that this guy, gets "Time - Man of the Year" and never gets any attention from Obermann's "Worst Person of the World" segment...Obermann can only focus on partisan politics. America has been duped - by the media, by the politicians and by the regulators and financial elites. What a sad day it is that the deed has been done. Bernanke has accomplished his goal of assuring a crisis of mammoth and many more orders of magnitude greater than 2007 and 2008.
Whatever the man is smoking, I think we have a right to know. Below is an excerpt of the outright and easily debunked manipulations that Mr. Burnake spewed today:
- Initial claims for unemployment insurance have generally been trending down, and indicators of job openings and firms' hiring plans have improved
- QE 'Effective at easing financial conditions'
- Recovery likely to be 'more rapid' in 2011 than 2010
- 'Overall inflation remains quite low'
- Recovery in consumer, business spending may be solid
- Economy seems to have strengthened in recent months
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
Legalized Fraud - Regulator and Legislators continue cronyism
...which is the one issue that this report does not even address of course.
JPM can get around position limits with just a few simple phone calls. That is an example of the type of regulation that increases the capability for a single member to purpetrate deception and fraud.
JPM can get around position limits with just a few simple phone calls. That is an example of the type of regulation that increases the capability for a single member to purpetrate deception and fraud.
State of the Dollar...
The thing to note is that the view that I am representing here is of the my EURUSD weekly trading system.
State of the union...
It was funny to hear Obama spout sound bytes about Sputnik among his other narcissistic garbage. Mind you that I would complain as badly about a Republican since politicians have lost touch with everyone except the banks and the fed. We should expect that from a community blackmailed and maneuvered into policies that are anything but for the people. But as we can see, when people have no money left and can not cover essential life needs then we get things like Tunisia and Egypt...what's the phrase again? ..."when people have nothing left to lose, they lose it"...clearly, the perception in Egypt is that its constituents have so little left to lose in that they must now spend $3,800 of their $4,000 per year income on food, that they see risk of death, torture, separation from their families, risk to their families and prison as a viable option because they have nothing left that can be stolen or that they can lose.
This is a story that is coming, as I have said previously, to a location nearer to us fairly soon. Greece, Turkey, Spain, Ireland, UK and France are all countries just waiting to express themselves and ultimately the "taxed to death", "regulated to death" American will also.
Certainly if Obama's crazy health care bill would be implemented with its illegal insurance mandates, and outright cronyism, that would have been another great reason for massive discontent in the US as its wealth transfer and tax burdens would have increased. The reality is that the special interests receive regulatory consideration and legislation that furthers their agenda's whether Oil, Financial or Manufacturing. Just to give you an example of the assistance the cronyists get, a friend of mine sent me this video which presents a rather compelling understanding of the money flows in cronyist circles...
This is a story that is coming, as I have said previously, to a location nearer to us fairly soon. Greece, Turkey, Spain, Ireland, UK and France are all countries just waiting to express themselves and ultimately the "taxed to death", "regulated to death" American will also.
Certainly if Obama's crazy health care bill would be implemented with its illegal insurance mandates, and outright cronyism, that would have been another great reason for massive discontent in the US as its wealth transfer and tax burdens would have increased. The reality is that the special interests receive regulatory consideration and legislation that furthers their agenda's whether Oil, Financial or Manufacturing. Just to give you an example of the assistance the cronyists get, a friend of mine sent me this video which presents a rather compelling understanding of the money flows in cronyist circles...
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Bernanke, Benanke, Bernake, Burnake, Burn
I find it rather interesting that I have found so many different ways of misspelling his name. In a funny way I think that is representative of the absolutely high esteem in which I hold him. For all my Bernanke misspellings I apologize to you. If Ben or his buddies happen read this - the misspellings were intentional...Better to have a spelling problem in a math business than a logic problem in the Banking business.
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