Saturday, July 3, 2010

Audit the Fed - dead...till the next time

Corruption is alive and well in Washington.

Friday, July 2, 2010

G20 and the depression

What the main stream press and the government say and what happens or happened are often two totally different things? I wonder whether that applies to the plans regarding market intervention, Afghanistan, the oil spill or financial reform? Somehow, I don't think we have to wonder too long to figure out the answer.

TF Daily Swing Adds another entry

Certainly this trade has been interesting to say the least. This is the last entry that I believe the system will take.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

TF Daily Swing results over 10 years

To put the current trade in perspective...below is the PL for trade decisions with average trade of $20,000 for this example with the Russell futures.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

TF Daily Swing Adds To Long Position

SPY getting a substantial bid

Despite the weakness in the market. People are paying up for leveraged long positions. We'll see how this plays out. Usually we would see the reaction sometime tomorrow...should be a several day affair if that happens. However, I will be watching to see if leverages position get thrown out or continue to see demand tomorrow

Risk Management Protocols

Below is a non optimized or risk managed HLA system (in fact, its the new EURUSD Forex system) running on ES 1 minute data. The ideas was to make a real system trade badly. So, there are a few drawdown trades. Using stops would have eliminated a substantial portion of the profitable trades that the system did execute - so they would not really have been risk management after all. So, there is a major problem. How can you trade without stops?
Below is the same system with the PLLimits engine managing profit and loss rules for hourly and daily trading. 
Below is the result of driving the PLController module with PLLimits processed risk decisions.
The objective here was not to make a perfect system. In fact it was quite the opposite. The objective was to manage a highly imperfect system without constraining trade decisions or resorting to stops.

Russell 2000 Futures Update

Above is the current status of the TF Daily Swing System. It has not added to its long position as you can see. This is a countertrend trade with mixed views among key systems, therefore, position sizes are reduced. I am confident that the system will handle this trade as respectably as possible and will be looking for entries for shorts sometime soon.

I have not been updating the blog that frequently because I have just moved and am getting things setup additionally to working on a significant release of my trade control software and risk management interface within the module.
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