Saturday, March 5, 2011

And for something completely different...

Since the next revolution happens in Saudi Arabia...lets take a look.

This is a companion chart to my Oil chart...

Oil again...95 was scarey but is 103 apparently ok...

how about $112 or $120...the bottom of the bullish flag is around $110 to $ overshoot would likely take us to $120ish...and with a high probability of a dramatic reversal.

Though these projections are indicated as an accellerated move on this chart, that is simply because the was not much space. It may take a while to move through these waves or it may happen really fast...but these are certainly some interesting points.

The VIX - setup for an impulse...

Russell 2000 double short ETF down over 90% gets huge interest...

QID nasdaq short made a 90 retracement...but it does not look dead yet.

Transports get a lot of tickets...

Copper - on the leading edge...

Friday, March 4, 2011

The S&P 500, a post-mortem for the week...

[Updated on 3/5/11 18:00] As a note, I in my original post...I uploaded the wrong image in the initial post this is corrected in this version.

Unemployment 8.9% - yeah sure we believe you BURNanke and Co.

...meanwhile at the from the Federal Reserve satellite offices in California, great Pump job Gross...meanwhile the QE funny business might be a little less amusing to sell...and Oil will continue on to 112 though its still in a bear flag long-term. (please see my previous post regarding oil)

If there is ever evidence that the Fed is directly interested in manipulating not just the financial system but the numbers reported by supposedly independent government agencies, this jobs report today was an example. Mr, BURNanke is absolutely steadfast in not reducing QE as it would be an admission that the policy was not working as desired. However, I assure you that there is tremendous pressure for him to reduce the program while simultaneously maintaining that everything he is doing is working. He needs a smoke screen,

I remind you of the real jobs situation. In May 2009 we had 132.7 million jobs in the US. Since then we that number has dwindled to less than 132.2 million jobs while 5.5 million new people were added to the potential workforce through population growth and other factors. When you look at it this way, what we have to show for Mr. BURNanke's efforts is a deficit of 6 million jobs. However, when you look at the way the official count is being kept we have less people willing, eligible or capable of participating in the work force than in 2009 - completely wiping out the population growth during that time and the many other employable people. This is a very good thing if you calculate the ratio of currently employed people against a shrinking pool of eligible workers. BURNanke got his cover today. He can purger himself in front of congress with out getting indicted because he can point to a decrease in the unemployment rate to support his actions when he needs to. He also feels that he can also use that evidence to qualify reduction of accomodation without looking like a loser. Too bad he can not fix the fact that he is a fraud and a complete failure.

My assessment of BURNanke's and GreenSPAM's handling of the real-estate bubble, banking bubble, banking crisis, financial crisis and continued contraction in real velocity of money in our system is that their actions are tantamount to treason and essentially equivalent to an act of war against the citizens of this nation and the world as a whole. They have enabled the banks and selected favorites to steal from the nation and has encouraged them to do so. They has made the large banks even larger. They enabled the bubbles in the stock market, housing market, bond market and commodity market to get out of control and significantly damage the financial condition of the average American at the expense of the ones who are in the know. That is wrong and is it also not a good indication that the fed is even paying attention to its mandate.

Now just to add insult to injury lets not forget that the BLS is using as a large component of its numbers the birth/death model for employment estimates...these numbers are NOT survery or staistical corroberations as Steve LIESman would have you believe. They are a guess of how many new businesses start and how many old buisiness's close - and then an abstraction of how many jobs that may or may not create. of the 192,000 jobs reported created 112,000 were imaginary jobs that they estimated or think were created based on the birth death model. If jobs are created for by a new startup and killed by the closure of an old business...which do you think would pay more? Certainly not startup jobs, which will likely hover around the worst paying and most intollerable levels possible. Counting these jobs as jobs is like counting a box of asti Spumanti as a Chateau La Fit. As if that is not enough, additionally to all of that, 30,000 of the 192,000 were temporary jobs counted from Temporary Staffing agencies. Since when are we counting temporary jobs with a forward looking term of a week as employment? So, the real number of jobs that the BLS can qualify for this report are 50,000.

What a sham...

Thursday, March 3, 2011

More evidence...

Mid Cap 400 Index shows recent distribution...

and a potential counter-trend bounce pattern where the 1st wave equals the third wave just underneath the previous highs. The index does not have to trade up there to fulfill the C wave, however, and may already be complete. When you look at the volume patterns this suggests that a view of the pattern as counter-trend is appropriate. I did not reflect an alternate count on the index in this chart.

Also, as a note, the other indexes have the same volume patterns.

The Ten Year Note

Initial claims...interesting and conveniently distorted

For a more "Un-'seasonally' manipulated" number Gallup has done the following survey...somehow their numbers are ALWAYS worse than the ones the government engineers. I wonder why?

Reprise for the market...Happy Happy Joy Joy...but what about the banks?

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Great discussion of the EURO, the fiat system and 2011 with Ian Gordon

I can not agree with the whole story...but there are some great points in this interview...certainly this is also a "must listen" interview.

Steve Keen's exceptional analysis and predicitons for 2011

This is a must listen piece and is enlightening and powerful.

The 10 Year Treasury and its relationship with the equity markets...

An update on the Dollar

An update on the long-term of SP500

It is important to understand that this is a log chart. However, my retracements are a normalized linear interpretation of the logarithmic relative price movements.

An update on the Long-term View of the Dow Jones

It is important to understand that this is a log chart. However, my retracements are a normalized linear interpretation of the logarithmic relative price movements.
50% normalized retracements of the log prices are roughly 9,000 in the mid-term and 1,000 in the longer-term
Please click on the chart to see the detailled view

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Banks Index Update

The Russian Central Bank unexpectedly raises its key interest rate

The Russian Central Bank unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percent to 8 percent for the first time since the economic crisis over two years ago.
The Bank of Russia said in a statement that the rate hike, effective from Monday, was needed due to the high inflationary pressure and the expected rise of capital inflow into Russia as the world oil prices surge on the unrest in the Middle East.


Below are two charts of the VIX that show the general view. Given the weekly chart it looks like we are competing our diagonals and that is also reiterated on the daily chart. There are a few options for support and we are currently sitting on one of them.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Another look at the Banks...

As I like to occasionally look at things from the reverse point of are some interesting charts of the bank index. The last few days have been less than impressive for them banks. Additionally, the inverted BKX index makes a reasonably bullish chart with its rather pretty bull flag pattern that is emerging...which, by the way, looks like it wants to make a move imminently.

Just as a note there was quite a bit of professional selling into the last hour and the close...perhaps we will not be getting our trusty reliable super duper 1st of the month "BUY" day afterall...last I checked EVERYONE was expecting one.

Below you can see the tendency toward weakness in the BKX index...and especially on this rebound. At least on a window dressing day, I would think that the banks could get their own stocks window dressed...but not today.

The dollar index...

While everyone is currently watching their lower trend lines break without an accelerated price decline and is wondering what is going on...they may be looking at the wrong trend line...

If ever there is a view that things are not what they seem, the following headline captures it:

Simon Black: "The Market Is Telling Us That The Dollar Is Finished"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/28/2011 12:46 -0500
There’s major shift occurring right now in financial markets. Sure, the food and freedom riots that are spreading across the globe are a major indicator that civil unrest follows very closely behind resource shortages and economic turmoil… but there’s something else that I’ve noticed recently– it’s a sea change in the financial system. In the past, major crises normally caused investors to seek safe haven assets, and everything else equal, the dollar would rise. They call it a ‘flight to safety’, and investors would flock towards the perceived stability of US Treasury securities. Fast forward to today. Mubarak. Gaddafi. Khalifa. Al Said. Ben Ali. Etc. There is no shortage of turmoil right now… yet we are seeing the dollar get clobbered while gold, silver, and smaller currencies like the Swiss franc rise. This represents a major shift in the way that the market views risk. Ironically, this makes precious metals among the most attractive safe haven alternatives– the fact that they have no real functional value is a net positive. In other words, $20 wheat means blood in the streets. $2,000 gold only makes for pithy headlines, and its significance is easily dismissed when highly regarded sages like Warren Buffet dispute the notion of holding precious metals (nevermind he bought oodles of silver in the late 90s).
The funny thing is that Tyler, and some of his whacky extremist metals/commodity bulls/dollar bears and are totally possessed with their dollar collapse, gold to $12,000 and silver to $500. I hate to say it but promoting silver coins sold on retail webites is a sign of a top...especially you can get enough emotion going to get a smart guy like Tyler pyched to do it.
The reality is the dollar is likely to ruin all their best laid plans...

Sunday, February 27, 2011

EU - Eurozone is dead

The Irish have voted and its funny how one little wrinkle in a ponzi scheme can bring it down even if the wrinkle comes from a little heretofore non-descript and fairly insignificant participant. The Irish have voted and, in my opinion, they should and they will pull an "Iceland". The EURO zone has no right to their future, their constitution or their assets and I doubt that the Irish will willingly give those things to them.

The side effects of Ireland will be Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey and a host of bankrupt (or nearly so) eastern block countries deciding that not to throw good money after bad...they will default on the invasive, corrupt and manipulative machinations of the EU. A debt money system run by power and greed and watched over closely by the many quasi official institutions that support the EU's efforts to homoginze and hold beholden its member states including and rather interestingly the Fed.

Good luck attempting to override this referendum Mr. Barosso and Van Rompuy. Now what?

David McWilliams, an economist and former official at the Ireland's Central Bank, has led calls for a popular vote under Article 27 of the Irish constitution, which requires on a matter of "such national importance that the will of the people ought to be ascertained".
"We have to re-negotiate everything," he said. "Obviously, the first way to do this is to make them aware that if they force us to pay everything, we will default and they will get nothing. So they had better get a little bit of something, than all of nothing. To make this financial pill easier to swallow, we must take the initiative politically. We can do this via a referendum.

"If the Irish people hold a referendum on the bank debts now, we can go to the EU with a mandate from the people which says No. This will allow our politicians to play hard-ball, because to do otherwise would be an anti-democratic endgame."

Declan Ganley, the Irish businessman who led the 2008 No vote to the Lisbon Treaty, said Ireland must "have the balls" to threaten debt default and withdrawal from the single currency.

"We have a hostage, it is called the euro," he said. "The euro is insolvent. The only question is whether Ireland should be sacrificed to keep the Ponzi scheme going. We have to have a Plan B to the misnamed bailout, which is to go back to the Irish Punt."
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