Friday, September 3, 2010

"If this goes on, we won’t survive, If people lose trust in the banks, there will be a revolution..."

The question for me is, is this headline is a sign of things to come?...I think it is...but in the current case this quote comes from Khalilullah Frozi, one of the two largest shareholders of Kabul Bank in Afghanistan.

We know the Ben and Shiela show has a nice theme music and is set on a fairy tale island with regular appearances by Larry Summers and Timmy Geithner and cameos by Greenspan as "Greenberg", Warren as "Nice gramps", Bartaromo as "Leggy Peggy" and Hank "the Bird watcher"...Lloyd has even been asked on the show, but he's been too busy making money - so he tried to get Trump to stand in for him.  Dimon was not invited to appear because he's the director and secretly has a crush on "Leggy Peggy"...

Be that as it may, this show is a distraction and the panics in Afghanistan are a sign of the social distrust permeating the globe at this point. Every now and then the Ben and Shiela show will trounce the reality shows and transfix everyone, but reality will win out. 

Back in Afghanistan they apparently have their own version of the "Ben and Sheila Show" starring Mahmoud Karzai, Khalilullah Frozi and Robert Gates.  Cameo appearances are not allowed but Obama has been ask to appear, he seem to always be booked on "The View" when they ask him  to appear - so he's also tried to get Trump to stand in for him.

The popular euphemisms this week are:
“People don’t need to be worried,”
“We’ve got enough cash..."  " support the bank.
“Even if the whole financial system in Afghanistan collapses, we have enough money to support it,”
Other tantalizing clips:
"The biggest mistake, by my partner, Mr. Farnood, was to buy $160 million worth of villas and office buildings in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, at the height of the real estate bubble in 2007 [with the banks money]. The next year, the market collapsed. Nobody could have predicted the crisis, nobody” - Mr. Frozi, Kabul Bank 
In the show, many of the villas bought with the banks (government's) money, are occupied by friends, and prominent Afghans, like former Vice President Ahmed Zia Massoud and Mahmoud Karzai.
“This is nothing but a panic,” Mr. Karzai said. “People are under the impression that the bank is failing, and it’s not.”
In, previews for next weeks show, Mr Farnood, a world-class poker player, was ordered to hand over £100 million of apartments and villas in Dubai which he had purchased with the banks money for figures including Mahmoud Karzai, the president's brother.

Apparnetly, these units and villas are worth as much as Dubai World and its refinanced 59 billion in debt - less than ZERO.

What is interesting about these two shows is that apparently the "Ben and Shiela Show" is a few episodes behind its Kabul sister. They are still sipping Pina Colada's on Ben's get away island. The theme will change and I hear that they will be hiring the writers from "Ka-BULL" back in the US. 

I know this post is a bit of a transient, but I think its ironic that we have not heard about Dubai for a while, or quite a lot of other things like Bank Runs and Lehman. Every thing's supposed to be just fine. The last time I heard about bank run's they were occuring in the most prolific debt carnivore of the world - "England" and were shortly followed by Lehman...and the bottom about to fall out...I think this is the same story, different station. The headlines look fine but the crap is all still there...albiet covered by Peggy Leggy's negligee and a few of Ben's Pina Colada's. Yeah, Ben you can drop money from helicopters and throw it out the window for the reason of the month club like buying bankrupt hotel debt for Maiden lane from Bear Stearns...but you could do nothing to prevent Lehman? I would say the show is getting less and less believable by the day.

Ironically, Afghanistan is Obama's worst nightmare and some of it may be coming soon to a town near you...
If this goes on, we won’t survive, If people lose trust in the banks, there will be a revolution in the financial system. - Khalilullah Frozi

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Well, well, well...the trap is setting

Time to start getting back to business. Market killed a lot of the Elliot-wavers who have been looking for wave 2 up (of the ever illusive and many time called wave 3 down) on every uptick since the mysterious wave 5 that never happened...and many bearish market-guru's as well are in the middle of rewriting their continuously upside target commentary..and the cluster of Hindenburg Omens did what they were supposed to...they got lot of people short and I indicated in previous posts. Otherwise the market has not had much going on which is also a reason I have not posted much in recent days.

The data for initial claims, auto sales and housing numbers are more abysmal than ever and the market structure is not setup for a sustained move. So, tomorrow we get more data, the miraculous ever-to-be downwardly revised job numbers. I wonder how far and many times they will revise this one down in the months ahead. If the numbers are market like JP Morgan's books then we should expect some more squeezing of the shorts and brave longs to targeted...1108 to 1110 would be nice and 1119 would be even nicer...Systems will take advantage of this structure in the markets and will likely take shorts on any push into these levels...there is a 1128 area that I would be watching any sustained breakout over that level as it could point to a push to over the highs of the year if that were to occur, which frankly, I think is not very probable. So far, the models have continued to nail it and covered shorts at the lows and are watching this move for entries (some of which they are taking).

In any case, I have been swamped with new releases and needed to spend some time on documentation and some presentations. I apologize for my lack of posting, I have missed writing on the blog but have spent quote a few days working until the 4:00 am to 7:30 am hours. Watching the sunrise is not as much fun as its cracked up to be when you have worked for 27 hours in front of it. I should be getting back to normal.

Monday, August 30, 2010

SP500 RVS 2.0 back to 1983...

This is a example of the historical equity returns for the SWING implementation of RVS on the Large SP Contract SP500 futures market first trade 1983, $1,000,000 allocation average trade size is $250,000. (0% profit reinvestment).

This is the first time that I have run this RVS version 2.0 model on data this far back...not bad...for nearly 30 years of Fed and government manipulated bubble blowing markets.
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