Saturday, September 25, 2010

Who wants your money...

Remember we have to spend money to find out where its going...

Friday, September 24, 2010

Helicopter Bennie and Greenspan's

Apparently, Bennie and the Greenspan's have been conspiring to inflate. The stock market is clearly their favorite playground. I wonder if Ben call's Greenspan before he hits his magic buttons.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Overdose...

A Crash is being setup...

I wanted to make this post tonight because we sit at a precipice in my opinion. I have built a rather large short position and I think the gig is about to be up. Tomorrow will be a very important day and looks probabilistically to me to be the initial thrust lower of a large move - finally.

This may show up as a triple digit loss on the DOW tomorrow but there are, of-course, alternatives and this expectation does not have to play out, or the market could try to break out to the upside of the current setups. However, since I think the probabilities are quite strong for a dramatic directional move, it is appropriate for me to post this and my belief that the move will be down, as indicated - potentially rather dramatically.

I would like to make another set of comments. The markets setup bear flags VIX looks setup in a nice falling wedge which is ready to break out and gold has set every gold bug and even a lot of non-gold bugs on fire. I for one do not really care to focus on the gold debate. But I do think that Mike Shedlock, though right about quite a few things, seems to have gotten just a wee bit over confident. I think his gold view, has merits but I think that despite the fed QE and general debasement there is a rolling shortage of hard unencumbered cash. If cash is expensive then assets including Gold will be cheap. I think gold has over-shot the pattern as indicated on my previous charts and is primed to help fuel the next big move into cash. 1.128 and 1.272 are derivative fib values that I look for as targets and have been fulfilled in the gold market. So, warning warning Will Rogers there may be something of a surprise lurking in them there woods. It will be interesting to see it play out. I am not that focused on Gold and do not trade it extensively, though I do use it and silver as an indicator. If it continues the breakout...that breaking and closing much above 1.272 will certainly invalidate my current perspective.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Update on gold

We are still in the fake out breakout phase...triggering stops at 1.272. There definitely are options for gold to go parabolic. I favor a fake out as the markets over all seem to be de-correlating significantly. One of the symptoms of that is the constant fake outs that we have been seeing.
 
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