Friday, July 29, 2011

Everything playing out according to plan

So, we are about to default, ehhh? I guess that's why rates, as I suggested would happen, are making new lows on the US 30 year bonds. But they don't talk about that in the media...instead they talk about the catastrophic interest rate hikes that will happen after Aug 2...sometimes its really hard to believe this is not just one big conspiracy. What's more we had a nearly 2% revision to GDP today...I question the motiviations behind that number both as previously reported which had to be known by officials to be highly inflated and the one published today. A 2% change in GDP is not a little accident that happens in a revision...but I guess with all the highly reliable smoke and mirrors going on with the employment numbers BURNanke and his buddies think they have this smoke and mirrors, data revision, data deception scam down to a science already.

The dollar is selling off along with the equity markets which I also suggested would happen...and the EURO is struggling to remain in its bounce...I expect that it will be able to make some new waves higher on this bounce. However, I can not imagine that it makes the ideal targets. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see the EURO make it to between 1.47 and 1.5.

All in all, there is no possibility of default for the US and the relative choices people have are not very good. So, here we have it, the US will not default - no question...Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland and a host of others will default. Emerging markets will be dramatically impacted by this instability and their financial systems and infrastructure will be compromised...where are you going to put your money when you hope to get over 98% of it back? Its not going to be silver, gold - its going to be US dollar Treasuries and a few other domination's of government debt not associated with Emerging Markets or the Euro.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011


I apologize for my absence. I have been travelling a lot, working on a monumentally complex release and have had a death in the family at the end of the week last week. I will be travelling to Europe this week because of, I am not really getting a break from travelling quite yet. The reality is also that I see that my last post is the only one necessary to understand this market. I see the debt ceiling issue triggering a sell-off in both equities and the dollar and the result setting up one of the best trades in history. In any case, for reference, given where the dollar is trading...the EURO should be at 1.475, the SP500 Futures should be at 1,368, the Russell futures should be at 870 and the Oil should be at 114. As you can see that is not the case. I indicated in my previous post that I did not believe that the euro would make its maximum projection of 1.52...That is playing out according to plan. The dollar looks set to reach 70ish...eaking out a new low. I see the EURO as a better short than the dollar is long...however, either will be an awesome trade. As you are most likely aware...we closed our dollar longs at the 77 area for a very nice profit. The only chart worth watching in my opinion is the inverted dollar chart that I posted a few weeks ago...all the attributes in that chart are playing out to a tee. The EURO is continuing to under perform relative to the dollar as are all risk markets and the dollar trade is turning into a highly emotional and debilitating trade for most. For those who are currently loving their dollar shorts, I would recommend taking profits aggressively as the dollar reversal will likely be brutal and highly persistent.
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