Friday, February 17, 2012

Bits and pieces…a mirage…and a 100 mph bus...


Charts...


Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Upticks Sold - and ready to roll…do we really need a blow off?

Spnning tops in a lot of markets…and closes at lows….equities still are resillient to some degree and for ES the target range is 1,358 to 1,362…two numbers I NEVER realistically thought we would see…but could happen tomorrow 

Germany struggles with its role as paymaster to Europe...

The most important market to watch in terms of where we go next is in my opinion Germany...and it is stumbling...in addition, the US equity markets have essentially remained at the same prices as on the suspect Non-Farm Payrolls report.

The risk rally in the US has taken the indexes up substantially higher than most other equity markets. It has also created an atmosphere where Apple at $500 is not enough...where great financial risks no longer matter. Apparently, people are feeling that the best way to drive an old bus - brick wall dead ahead - is to floor it to 100 mph even though they know the wheels will fall off at 60. In their scenario, miraculously, they imagine that when they hit the wall, the momentum of the bus will keep it wholey intact yet obliterate the wall.

Interesting concept...

Sunday, February 12, 2012

All is not well..welcome to Athens

This is what happens when countries are governed by banks and when a currency and complete infrastructure is implemented and designed to be certain that the sovereign nations and people are governed by financial institutions rather than their elected officials and constituents.

Market action is NOT bullish…the EURO can not get out of its own way, on what is supposed to be the mother of all panacea bailouts. A Goldman Tax alumni and technocrat is firing elected officials in Greece who did not vote for to save German banks not to mention JPM and Goldman Tax. 40 pips does not seem like a very powerful endorsement of a deal that, though voted for, is far from done. As Athens descends into chaos, will the counterparties recognize that this deal will be reneged on? I think so…Greece stands little chance of getting or repaying anyone and Germany will likely decided that they are better off keeping their money to use to bailout their banks when they can not afford to payout on their derivatives obligations and when their assets get written down dramatically as well.

The equity markets will likely show some resilience, but I doubt much or for long. Apple computer will likely put the finishing touches on its parabola and the indexes have, for all intents and purposes, completed their symmetry targets. All in all, I think Greece issues is now progressing and we are set to begin the next phases of the saga…which calls for a dramatic move in the dollar up and risk down.


Greek chaos...ruling coalition members resign...

Double Trouble...

While it may seem silly to be painting dragons on charts…the reality is that the pattern shows a lot of support and resistance patterns and strong breakouts potentials…the patterns, in the case of, the cup and handle and dragon patterns are iterative and double.

In the case of dragon patterns they are made up of waves A, B, C, D, E, F and G - 7 waves and are very strong structures.
 
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