Saturday, May 4, 2013

Greek Islands and itiotic central banks...

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

FED has NO credibilty, no SENSE and no Plan…untested medicine and unintended consquences

The speakers make some excellent points about the FED’s QE being a liability for the economy.

I have pointed out many many times that the FED has directly been blowing bubbles in leveraged markets and actually hampering any real economic recovery for real people. Apparently, the FED did not see a 80% drop in oil after a 100+% risk in only a short time as an issue that it could have contributed to. Nor does the FED see the blood that it has on its hands in triggering the Arab spring which has been anything but. In fact, I wrote  post called “BURNanke has blood on his hands”. Since the FED and adjust the CPI and it can be remodelled by them at any time, they can eliminate any unfavorable data points at their whim…they are doing this in nearly every case in the last 30 years…thay are not understanding any of their manipulations and interventions.

The FED has "Over promised and Under delivered…” and it has been the chief lemming leading all the other lemmings right to the edge of the same cliff.
Below is key commentary excerpted from Kevin Walsh’s interview.

Commodities and Precious Metals - QE is not working…BURNanke doctrine has failed...

Today as yesterday, the Dollar is down .5+%, howver, most commodities are down too. 
What this really means is that Gold and Silver’s in ability to post green numbers, and big ones at that, demonstrates EXTREME weakness…to me this clearly has implications of how participants are thinking about QE and Central Bank policy, the economy and demand. To puts this in perspective the previously when the dollar dropped this much GOLD rallied tripple digits. And what precious metals are saying is that the deflation magnet shown in the relative performance (real-estate and credit recovery led S&P recovery remember) is pulling. Paper assets are exactly that paper…and worth less than real ones when one realizes that there is much too much malinvested credit around and not enough demand and real money.

Additionally, the public has officially been trained that gold and silver will only go up by the likes of Eric Sprott and others…if the public all over the world running out to buy any physical gold and silver they can find seems bullish to you…I have a bridge in manhattan that is available for let...

Meanwhile, Laszlo Birinyi and his fellow extrapolaters and linear projectionists have their rulers out and they are all pointed in one direction…and AAPL is still a short!

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Prelude to a KISS…and not the good kind

Add to all the discombobulated patterns going on in this market that Spot Gold -0.1% Spot Silver -1.33%; Spot Platinum −0.36% and Spot Crude is down over $1.3 and the US Dollar DXY is down .45%. 

Add to that the Apple bond offering which has everyone bullish bullish bullish when in fact, the AAPL bond will be taking billions of dollars out of the market…that’s weeks of QE and its also likely not to generate sustained follow through for AAPL shares…things are just not adding up.

Monday, April 29, 2013

Education and Learning - do not require school, great expense or student loans…

…but desire for experience. the ability to see and try differently. to try. to create…

Metals ready to finish margin calls…Equities at risk of margin calls...

Some interesting data which helps to explain why lumber prices are not too far above 15 year lows on a miracle QE real estate recovery:
  • South Korean Industrial Production -2.6% m/m (vs. +0.6% expected) 
  • New Zealand Building Permits increased by -9.1%(MoM) in Mar vs. 1.9% in Feb, well below estimate set for 2.0%.
  • U.S. April Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index: -15.6 vs. expected +5.0, prior was +7.4
Not to be fooled, precious metals look to be nearly complete with their bounces from deleveraging round 1…round 2 is likely up next and will most likely spread into equities deleveraging Round 1.

I have a few more charts coming as a part of this post so check back later to see the updates.

Everything that is WRONG with our financial system (and its enablers) is obvious…

Some would love to play a hand or few of poker. Its highly questionable if they would feel so inclined knowing that the deck was stacked artificially to an adversaries advantage or that someone was able to see their hands. That is unless you happen to be Jim O’Neill and GoldmanTax…for a select few a stacked deck and compromised hand is their definition of panacea. Jim, probably pays for a few mansions a year on the commissions he gets peddling his ability to handle central bank order flow and provide asset services. If your livelihood and your ability to buy 12 beautiful sailing yachts and a few mansions was impacted by a few little central banks, I am quite sure your interview would most likely not be that different than Jim’s below. But how else can I say it…WHAT AN A**HOLE. Goldman does not escape that definition either. If you read my blog you know, I have NEVER used any inappropriate adjectives. I aim to show restraint…but this is just disgusting. If you can print money, you can NOT buy stocks with it. Finis. Over. Out. Gone. Done. Complete. The only pretense I can come up with that would make it acceptable would be if your mansion and your yacht depended on it. But then, that would only be acceptable to you and not to the good of your fellow citizens. I suggest that EVERYTHING that is wrong with our financial system, BURNanke, BlankCHECK, JP MOREgan etc all espouse the same self-serving and truly disgusting complacency, idiocy and outright deception as that of our dear JIM.

Gold (and 10yr UST) suggest S&P500 initial break target around 1380

Deflation is alive…

In my earlier post today I show a UST 10 year divergence that is reaching untenability with the S&P500…it is currently suggesting that the S&P500 belongs at 1380. Using the recent Gold move to illustrate how that 1380 could be achieved and also a secondary endorsement of the Treasury hypothosis…Gold also points to 1380 for the S&P though that will, along with UST, likely be adjusted lower as Gold breaks its recent lows and UST Yields break their lows. 

Margin Debt likely now at a new record, NYSE not at a new record and short interest near 4 year lows, Central Banks selling their book…the setup fo an precious metals style disconnection in equities is in place...

Look closely at this chart and check out the thin red short interest line…we are near 4 year lows in short interest combined with nearly 8 year highs in margin debt…this makes for very few buyers once things start to drop and a less than strong-hands long position holders.

Sunday, April 28, 2013

Market's hysteria still in place...

While we may end up eeking out a minor new high like S&P500 cash to 1605 or something…that changes nothing with the charts presented below. Technically, the market should not be able to sustain much longer or to a new high…but strange things are happening.
It appears that the gold liquidation is setting up for stocks…somebody definitely is on the know and is putting real money behind it…what do bonds know that Muppet's and GoldmanTax clients apparently do not.
Situation Normal all F**ed Up…
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