Dollar Analysis - much focus on market bounce - evidence not compelling

Every where I see people looking for a market bounce, while evidence may support a very small one, keep in mind that the dollar did not even take out Thursday's high on Friday while equities got pummeled. From what I see, a pullback in the dollar has maximum potential of around 75.90. That is the dashed support line on the chart below. If the dollar were to take out that level, it would likely be taking out swing lows from the left shoulder and that would be a SIGNIFICANT compromise to the technical picture.

What seems most likely to me is that the dollar makes a small pullback above this support and then breaks out or simply gaps up over resistance at the thick green line. This of course would likely support a market that would cascade lower to the 1016 to 1020 area at least, probably more prior to a good bounce. If we look at the downside risk for the dollar its so minimal that any market rally would have to be rather restrained at best. Again, if the dollar were to take out 75.90 then something else would be playing out.

The thick green trend line immediately above for the dollar is a significant resistance, but the pattern is strong and looks like it is demanding follow through and then consolidation. A breakout of this trend line will cause an avalanche of dollar shorts to cover... potentially in explosive fashion.

Looking at past action in the dollar, pullbacks during the first short squeeze higher are extremely small and more likely gap ups. I will post some examples shortly.

Please click on chart for a sharper view.

Nasdaq 100 vs AAPL earnings

The Apple earnings reactions are demonstrated by the vertical lines on the chart below.  Looks like the Apple phenomenon has played out again...surprise surprise. This is a chart is an updated chart of a recent chart of Apple I put out before they reported.

Market Observations - Dollar Poised

The dollar is poised and ready...just below key resistance. Ironically, most are looking for a bounce...if the dollar does breakout...then we will need to be looking for a cascade lower. So far, the dollar has guided me very well through this current pattern. Right now, I favor a small bounce followed by a dollar breakout and an equities cascade lower. What this means is that immediate resistance may provide a convenient point for some dollar selling or consolidation...and we can not underestimate how minimal that may be. Once this resistance is broken the effect will be a strong rally for the dollar and heavy selling of inflation assets. SP 500 targets for me on this move will be 970 area with a hesitation at the 1016-1020 area.

EURO divergence has been and will likely continue to be a great trigger for trading and has revealed the dollar and market patterns prior to them occurring - sometimes by as much as 30 minutes. It is currnetly my primary trade setup vehicle. If there is no divergence between the EURO and the SP500 I do NOT do a trade.

The fractional reserve system is dead...and the impact of that will be an exploding dollar. Which is why we have to worry about the impending breakout on the dollar chart. To understand more about this subject please read the feature articles posted on the upper right on this blog.

Below is an unchanged old chart of the SP500 that I posted over the last few weeks.

Below is a very good chart from Matt Fraily for the UUP.

Below is an unchanged old chart of IWM that I posted on the 21st of September.

Below is a chart of Oil that I have been monitoring over the long-term. 

First resistance held...we have not yet made it to the upper resistance which is around 87 to 90...which is rather disappointing for the pattern. Depending on next week's action in the dollar, we will see if there is any upside potential remaining.

The Gold Equities GDX chart below this is from Matt at breakpointtrades.com and demonstrates that gold stocks are leading physical gold, as they usually do. If that is the case, any bounce for commodities will be muted.

Below is another chart from breakpointtrades.com of the SPX.

I do not love the count of the wave 4 as it is labelled. But I do think that we are putting in some sort of triangle or flat here for wave 4. This is appropriate alternation and may reflect what the dollar chart seems to indicate - which is that an upside breakout on the dollar will make equities want new lows before we get a sizable bounce.

above chartcourtesy of matt fraily, breakpointtrades.com

Market Observations - Dollar and EURO

The dollar held support yesterday. As long as it does not break it, I believe the down-trend in the market will persist and charts that are still not broken such as Oil and Gold will break. Contributing to this view was the large negative divergence at yesterday's close between the EURO and equities. This divergence pointed to negative prices today...I would continue to watch the EURO and SP500 for divergence. New highs in the EURO are usually foreshadowing of SP500 new highs and failed highs in the EURO are reliable and early indicators of failure in the SP500 especially when the SP makes a new swing high.

Market Observations - What does the genie say this time?

The dollar genie is below. The gray down trend line that we just broke over is now support. The pattern will not look well with a substantial pullback below this line and I do not anticipate one. That means, we should temper expectations for a pop in the indexes.

There is some additional resistance from the green down trend line at 76.78. A break of this level targets trend reversal confirmation levels at the two red lines. This, in turn, confirms the dollar trend reversal.

So, what this chart looks like is that it is preparing for a large range up candle - and SOON. Sure its overbought...but the markets were overbought for months and still went up - but the dollar has much stronger fundamentals supporting its rally than the stock market did...it also has a much more emotionally and rationally attached contingent looking for a dollar collapse. So, I would temper expectations somewhere between a slight pullback for the dollar and pop for the markets to a mild to negative reception to the GDP numbers triggering a range extension to the current moves in both. The markets do not like to let you into a trade if they don't have to. The dollar chart says to me that Mr. Market is not going to make a lot of room to get short equity indexes and long the dollar.

I have not been posting that much lately as I have had two deaths in the family...hopefully I will be able to get back to normal soon.

Market Observations - Trendline Breaks

Market Observations - One Chart

Only one chart is necessary to guide us for the next few days. The breakout or retrace on the dollar chart below.

I do not see a high likelihood of a test of the lows on this pattern at this time. Additionally, that would also setup an entirely different scenario. But I do think we may have a small argument with the downtrend line immediately above. This resistance level was rejected today. Perhaps we get a retrace back to the 75.60 to 75.80 area. That would afford the market some upward bias consolidation.

However, it may also be possible that we open with a breakout of this downtrend line. In which case I would think that we see very heavy buying of the dollar. 77.40 would be the nearest target in that case. That would set up a range day down potential for the indexes. Personally, as the markets are oversold, I would like to see some bounce or even rally here and thus a pullback in the Dollar...but this market has not been in the habit of doing what we want it or expect it to. So, given the bearishness of the the sentiment for the dollar, there is a lot of pressure to breakout of this resistance area. So, that is the signal I am looking for.

Housing Charts... Foreshadowing the Markets?

Well, so much for Schiller's previous comments that the last uptick could be the bottom...

Market Observations - Targets

First, lets talk about the dollar...down trend line at 76.4. Seems obvious that we will complete 5 waves up to test this resistance level. The question is what we get when we reach there. A Breakout? Reversal? Consolidation?

The pattern in the dollar does not leave room for a new low. If the dollar were to break to a new low, it would likely be ushering a different pattern than an ending diagonal...which would likely be a new 5 wave move down, the inflation trade would likely play out. So, it does not seem very likely for a structure like this to be followed be a new low.

Given the intensity of the rise, which was stronger than I was expecting, we are now at nearing formidable resistance with an overly confident set of bears in the market and the divergence in the Euro market, all seem to indicate to me that the amount of bears that will be trapped here could be sizable. If that is the case, a break of the 76.4 area will not give much time to get in. I may not give a retest of consequence and thus the SP500 may find itself in the 1020's lickity split. Incidentally, my target for the SP is 1026 for this initial move down...but we should not count on a big bounce. Just like the rally did not let you in, this bear may be even less understanding.

In any case, it seems like a consolidation is in order for the dollar once it hits 76.40 and that will give us a change to see if the market can muster one last bounce off trend line support. I am not optimistic that the market can stage a rally here given the unexpectedly strong reaction of the dollar here.

thanks to matt fraily, breakpointtrades.com