Friday, April 1, 2011

Happy Happy Joy Joy market - celebrates a totally made up jobs number

The fact that they essentially pull these numbers out of black box models that resemble reality in a parallel universe is apparently not enough...they have to leak the numbers they are going to manufacture. The good news is the fed now has the leeway to do what ever they want with quantitative easing. They have the cover to cancel QE2 or end it under the guise that its was very successful. The thing is you need the perfect jobs numbers and to eliminate 35% of people who want to work, are eligible to work but somehow don't fit in the governments pool of the "US Workforce" and then you get an 8.8% unemployment rate.

In any case, this is not enough for the leaders of the titans of the Banking system, Government and Wall Street, the numbers have to be leaked for profit not just cover in addition to being fabricated. The irony is that they have given us a tremendous gift - the ability to sell at rather advantageous prices - regardless of the flimsy foundations for those prices.

I will post additional charts and an update on the swing positions later I indicated earlier the common view is that the pullback was a wave 4 and we are off to new highs in a wave 5 type pattern...that is not what I am looking to be the case as I posted several days ago on the subject. My systems are certainly not thinking so...but the level delusion in these market is simply outstanding. Ren and Stimpy are even surprised!

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Meltdown started when Fukushima explosions occured...

Of course, that was not reported...and according to the general press and officials the meltdown has not happened yet and is only partial.

Who can you believe? Certainly not the the officials or our administration. Libya seems to make a good alternate headlines to the dangerous headlines that should have been coming out of Japan and all over our news regarding Fukushima and the humanitarian crisis it is creating.

Candidate Obama vs Cronyist Obama - take your pick

The constitution, what's that? The Budget, who cares? - Barrack Obama

Excuse me while I transfer the Libyan operation to myself on Wednesday...

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Bullish. Bullish. Bullish....yeah, yeah, yeah - not so fast!

Few people seem to take a stand when it comes to the markets and to attempt to be honest about that stand. I absolutely stand by my post of last Friday exactly as it was written. Nothing for me has changed. The reason that I gave the market till the first few days of this week was that the most likely scenario for my systems is to take more than one entry into a trade.  The Russell 2000 system had only one entry short as of the close last Friday. At least one or two more entries seemed logical. Today we got the third short entry for that system and the largest size entry so far in the trade. If I am end up being wrong, then I tried and I will probably not going have great performing trades here. I have a few points I would like to make before I have to go out to a meeting.
  1. Volume was incredibly light in the professional futures markets.
  2. The S&P500 sold off after large trades hit bid near the highs...while shorts continued to get squeezed in the Russell and the Mid Caps.
  3. There were a lot of small size trades lifting the asks this afternoon in the Russell. These traders are mot likely setting themselves up for disappointment.
  4. Everyone can now clearly see the the sell off was a wave 4 - which it most probably was not.
  5. The dollar held its ground and bonds are not confirming equities.
  6. The NASDAQ 100 has many many components that are clearly putting in a-b-c wave counter trend pushes.
  7. Most Elliott wavers are looking for the infamous wave 5 and then then really really infamous wave 3 down. They will most likely not be in either trade successfully.
  8. Volume really sucked (oh, I said that)
  9. VIX not comfirming market highs.
  10. Copper not rallying.
  11. Stops were taken out and markets diverged literally one going up while the other was going down. Selling was also stronger than people are asuming on the nasdaq and s&p500. Confusion amongst the markets is not a sign of a strong market.
  12. Financials are NOT performing
  13. I have major cycles short on the Euro and long on the Dollar
  14. A perfect A-B-C symmetry and major trend line was hit on the Russell - dead nut.
  15. Same trend line off highs also was sold on the S&P500.
  16. The consensus has everyone looking up because this market defies logic and the patterns look enticing...nothing like a well laid trap!
I view it, that out of a market seemingly able to ignore every rational interpretation of risk and reward, confidence is way too high and a major crash is pending

In accordance with this, I am now nicely short.

Two charts from a few days ago...setup is playing out...

Looks like a some sort of flat on the Russell and S& the upper targets. What a whacked out market.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Where we stand...

Today's rally made very little rational sense, as is common of all things in the markets, was on low volume and certainly has pushed the envelope for the end of the month window I see it, for each stretch to the upside to correponding pressure downward will increase...nothing has changed with regard to any of the comments I made on friday last week. I had not necessarily expected to get more entries into the current trades...but I wanted to share the current trades we are in for the Russell 2000 and S&P500, in case it may be helpful in these crazy times.

Confirmed deaths in Ivory Coast up to 462 - Our values are at stake

But there is no oil, Obama and friends will quietly ingnore the deaths and civil war going on there. Perhaps France will come to their aid and order a No-Drive zone...and get a UN resolution going...Well, I doubt it...the powers that be are too busy trying to protect Oil and prop up the stock market for a few insolvent banking buddies to be bothered with thousands lives at risk in a country that barely makes the US news...

The fact that these types of incongruencies are fostered out in the open by our government, the UN and other governments involved in the Libya offensive, is simply rediculous and demonstrate the values that are really at stake here. As I said earlier, this is a sad bunch. Perhaps, Hillary Clinton can sit nodding her head in affirmation of all the civillians that are absolutely not being injured and lives being ruined by us chosing our route. The reality is that there were other ways to go about a humanitarian mission than blowing people up and gettting us into another war. But perhaps is will distract us from other things that we should be paying attention to.

Monday, March 28, 2011

How much do we need to raise the debt ceiling to pay for imperialism in Libya?

Ironically, the government is still arguing about the budget and the debt ceiling. This issue is still lurking and waiting to torpedo something. The republicans can't seem to do math and the democrats skipped math class entirely. Republicans promised to reduce the deficit in a meaningful way - somehow that meaningful way has turned from much talk into only $60 billion in cuts which is kind of like going to McDonald's and deciding to reduce the bill by going from a supersize meal to a large one. What are these charletan's smoking? Now, lest I only complain about the republican's (I see dems and repubs as one party anyway), our man Obama (not to mention most of the domcorats currently in power) has done more to bankrupt this country than any other president (likely more than almost all the presidents before him when combined) and decides that imperialist ventures with no exit plan are on the table right when we are having trouble raising the debt ceiling? Wonder what will happen as this debt ceiling and budget issue heats up in the context of a math inhibited, moderatly IQ'ed and manhood inhibited president and a similarly handicapped Ben BURNanke? With both of these guys knowing only one manuever, how to get in...and no idea how to get out...the dollar is going to go through the roof!

I do not imagine that there is any way that anyone in their right mind can take anything Obama said on his Libya update seriously...he basically said absolutely nothing...but I actually feel like I know less about the implications of the official US and allied stance for this mission now than before his address... In fact, the only real question is going to be how long do we really think we will be there and how will we pay for it - which was a subject he rightly avoided to focus on. What we are left with is to attempt to read just how large and decpetive Obama's lies are about these matters... And this is not behavior that I feel proud of as representing a positive image of America. What about the many other conflicts that resulted in tremendous loss of life that never even made the US news let alone require military conflict. Ofcourse, Obama and many of the republican reviewers who endorsed the mission after his speach will only tell you to ingore that we have no idea who we are really supporting on the ground, or really how many civillian lives we are damaging - they only tell you the superficial marketing hype. That's the problem. And its also why we have a depression going on in this country because leadership uses outright deception to sell its adgenda's.

I tell you, our government is a sad bunch.

Now for something completely different...

Clearly the reason that the US feels like it needs to interfere in every conflict throughout the globe is that the nation is marginally deficient with regard to penis size while slightly gifted and therefore struggling with a deep male identity conundrum. Apparently when you get a bunch of relatively smart males with slightly diminished manhood together - there is no conflict they don't want to be involved in and no borrowed money that they don't want to spend.

Japan and NASDAQ 100 Technology companies...

Japan is in crisis. We all know that, however, the NASDAQ 100 apparently less aware than it should be. What is interesting here is that there is a lot of technology manufacturing that has been completely taken off line in Japan. Much of this manufacturing is for components that are built using proprietary capabilities and hardware only available in Japan. The intellectual property and patents required to implement it are not for sale or available at this point. Perhaps over time, Japanese companies will diversify more of their technologies via licensing and non-domestic manufacturing. In any case, reproducing these capabilities is not a simple situation as it is simply not possible to recreate the facilities, manufacturing technologies or capabilities somewhere else. I is simply too expensive, not an option or too time consuming or some combination. The resulting condition brings up several important questions:
  1. Will Japanese manufactures come back online soon?
  2. Will components manufactured in Japan be considered contaminated if the Fukushima issue remains in the picture?
  3. Will companies be willing to make the required capital investments in R&D and manufacturing to bring component manufacture closer to home.
My answer is something I discussed in my posts this weekend. The Japanese government has not made it possible for companies to plan their futures. Every time a piece of information comes out it is found to be unreliable, therefore, people stop committing resources and planning based on untrustworthy data. This situation will significantly delay Japanese technology manufacturing coming back on line and ramping to normal levels for quite some time.

The Nasdaq 100 companies for example could attempt to build components themselves, but that is not a reasonable commitment for them at this time or in this economic environment. They don't have the technology patents, resources and infrastructure that Japan has built over these many years. American companies concentrated on delivery of the end-product not the manufacture of its components. They will chose to wait this out hoping that Japan or Japanese companies figure out a realistic solution...which may end up being quite some time. During this time their sales will likely be dramatically impacted and they will be forced to make significant cuts and resource adjustments. I see the technology space as extremely risky here and am surprised that dramatic optimism that people seem to have for it. It was risky anyway and people have been getting a sell-job from analysts anyway, but with the Japan issue there is simply no reason to buy Technology companies with exposure to Japanese production and manufacturing.

All in all this is going to take a long time for the technology space to come back to normal. Companies like CSCO, HP and AAPL have a lot of exposure to Japanese technologies and if things don't start to get back to normal really fast...they will not be able to cope without dramatic changes.

Copper - a preview of equities

Sunday, March 27, 2011

The best place to get real news is apparently from comedy shows...

This is no exception...George Carlin is one special guy and I for one miss having him around.

While the establishment marches...they are more and more visible

This is a rather interesting video that I recalled this weekend that was made before the Libya operation in early march. There are many insightful observations in this interview and given how accurate Celente has been as was in this interview, I think its worth reviewing again.

We live in troubled times with leaders who lack integrity and values. The Libya operation (War) is hollow and a tremendous smoke screen for western leaders. Kind of like promoting solving a debt problem with more debt...they actually successfully floated "...solving a humanitarian problem with more killing". The European situation is one that I discussed in depth starting in 2009 - EURO on a trip to oblivion and one which will likely play out in the US in some form or another as people become more and more frustrated with the financial, governmental and regulatory systems that transfer their assets and hard work into the hands of others...sometimes in totally different parts of the country and more disturbingly and frequently to other countries entirely.

I think this video adds very good color to the situtation and certainly puts Barrosso's and Van Rompuy's performance in their recent press conference in a rather dim light. These guys are truly either entirely pathological or totally out of touch...

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