Tuesday, March 1, 2011

The Russian Central Bank unexpectedly raises its key interest rate

The Russian Central Bank unexpectedly raised its key interest rate by 0.25 percent to 8 percent for the first time since the economic crisis over two years ago.
The Bank of Russia said in a statement that the rate hike, effective from Monday, was needed due to the high inflationary pressure and the expected rise of capital inflow into Russia as the world oil prices surge on the unrest in the Middle East.

The VIX

Below are two charts of the VIX that show the general view. Given the weekly chart it looks like we are competing our diagonals and that is also reiterated on the daily chart. There are a few options for support and we are currently sitting on one of them.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Another look at the Banks...

As I like to occasionally look at things from the reverse point of view...here are some interesting charts of the bank index. The last few days have been less than impressive for them banks. Additionally, the inverted BKX index makes a reasonably bullish chart with its rather pretty bull flag pattern that is emerging...which, by the way, looks like it wants to make a move imminently.

Just as a note there was quite a bit of professional selling into the last hour and the close...perhaps we will not be getting our trusty reliable super duper 1st of the month "BUY" day afterall...last I checked EVERYONE was expecting one.

Below you can see the tendency toward weakness in the BKX index...and especially on this rebound. At least on a window dressing day, I would think that the banks could get their own stocks window dressed...but not today.

The dollar index...

While everyone is currently watching their lower trend lines break without an accelerated price decline and is wondering what is going on...they may be looking at the wrong trend line...

If ever there is a view that things are not what they seem, the following headline captures it:

Simon Black: "The Market Is Telling Us That The Dollar Is Finished"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/28/2011 12:46 -0500
There’s major shift occurring right now in financial markets. Sure, the food and freedom riots that are spreading across the globe are a major indicator that civil unrest follows very closely behind resource shortages and economic turmoil… but there’s something else that I’ve noticed recently– it’s a sea change in the financial system. In the past, major crises normally caused investors to seek safe haven assets, and everything else equal, the dollar would rise. They call it a ‘flight to safety’, and investors would flock towards the perceived stability of US Treasury securities. Fast forward to today. Mubarak. Gaddafi. Khalifa. Al Said. Ben Ali. Etc. There is no shortage of turmoil right now… yet we are seeing the dollar get clobbered while gold, silver, and smaller currencies like the Swiss franc rise. This represents a major shift in the way that the market views risk. Ironically, this makes precious metals among the most attractive safe haven alternatives– the fact that they have no real functional value is a net positive. In other words, $20 wheat means blood in the streets. $2,000 gold only makes for pithy headlines, and its significance is easily dismissed when highly regarded sages like Warren Buffet dispute the notion of holding precious metals (nevermind he bought oodles of silver in the late 90s).
 
The funny thing is that Tyler, and some of his whacky extremist metals/commodity bulls/dollar bears and ZeroHedge.com are totally possessed with their dollar collapse, gold to $12,000 and silver to $500. I hate to say it but promoting silver coins sold on retail webites is a sign of a top...especially you can get enough emotion going to get a smart guy like Tyler pyched to do it.
 
The reality is the dollar is likely to ruin all their best laid plans...

Sunday, February 27, 2011

EU - Eurozone is dead

The Irish have voted and its funny how one little wrinkle in a ponzi scheme can bring it down even if the wrinkle comes from a little heretofore non-descript and fairly insignificant participant. The Irish have voted and, in my opinion, they should and they will pull an "Iceland". The EURO zone has no right to their future, their constitution or their assets and I doubt that the Irish will willingly give those things to them.

The side effects of Ireland will be Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey and a host of bankrupt (or nearly so) eastern block countries deciding that not to throw good money after bad...they will default on the invasive, corrupt and manipulative machinations of the EU. A debt money system run by power and greed and watched over closely by the many quasi official institutions that support the EU's efforts to homoginze and hold beholden its member states including and rather interestingly the Fed.

Good luck attempting to override this referendum Mr. Barosso and Van Rompuy. Now what?

David McWilliams, an economist and former official at the Ireland's Central Bank, has led calls for a popular vote under Article 27 of the Irish constitution, which requires on a matter of "such national importance that the will of the people ought to be ascertained".
"We have to re-negotiate everything," he said. "Obviously, the first way to do this is to make them aware that if they force us to pay everything, we will default and they will get nothing. So they had better get a little bit of something, than all of nothing. To make this financial pill easier to swallow, we must take the initiative politically. We can do this via a referendum.

"If the Irish people hold a referendum on the bank debts now, we can go to the EU with a mandate from the people which says No. This will allow our politicians to play hard-ball, because to do otherwise would be an anti-democratic endgame."

Declan Ganley, the Irish businessman who led the 2008 No vote to the Lisbon Treaty, said Ireland must "have the balls" to threaten debt default and withdrawal from the single currency.

"We have a hostage, it is called the euro," he said. "The euro is insolvent. The only question is whether Ireland should be sacrificed to keep the Ponzi scheme going. We have to have a Plan B to the misnamed bailout, which is to go back to the Irish Punt."

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Fraud on a massive scale - the deception of the Banks, Washington and Obama

Why are the only people going to jail NOT members of the financial and government elite...Jullian Assange for example...We should be prosecuting Ben BURNanke, Tim G-heist-ner and the criminals at Bank of America to name just a few.

The irony of our times, is that to get real and quality news jouranlisim on television you have to go to the Comedy Channel, Aljazeera and Russian Television in the US before CBS, CNBS, MSNBC, Fox News or CNN.

The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Corporate Hacker Tries to Take Down WikiLeaks
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full EpisodesPolitical Humor & Satire BlogVideo Archive
The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Corporate Hacker Tries to Take Down WikiLeaks - Glenn Greenwald
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full EpisodesPolitical Humor & Satire BlogVideo Archive

Austan Goolsbee - a goon who does not get it and Administration that does not know we know they don't get it. I can't believe that they let this guy out of the basement.
The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Austan Goolsbee
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full EpisodesPolitical Humor & Satire BlogThe Daily Show on Facebook

Hard to believe that Rumsfeld forget most of what he ever said and is now trying to rewrite history...Jon does an amazing job with this interview and Donald Rumsfeld is clearly not comfortable but he will do anything to whore for a few bucks
The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Exclusive - Donald Rumsfeld Extended Interview Pt. 1
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full EpisodesPolitical Humor & Satire BlogThe Daily Show on Facebook
The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Exclusive - Donald Rumsfeld Extended Interview Pt. 2
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full EpisodesPolitical Humor & Satire BlogThe Daily Show on Facebook
The Daily Show With Jon StewartMon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Exclusive - Donald Rumsfeld Extended Interview Pt. 3
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full EpisodesPolitical Humor & Satire BlogThe Daily Show on Facebook

Russell 2000 setting up out of expanding wedge


Revisiting Apple...

So far the nasdaq 100 has been showing relative weakness versus the Nasdaq as a whole and AAPL in particular has been showing relative weakness versus the 100. This could be a sign of vulnerable market and certainly puts the bounce so far on shaky ground. Based on the window dressing and still unfilled gap at 350 on this chart I would think we get more testing and a continue to attempt a fill of the lower gap on Monday followed by selling into the close of the day and month if upside momentum does not get some volume behind it.

Friday, February 25, 2011

Some thoughts on the Financials...

I will be posting some more detailled views of the markets, especially this bounce, this weekend. One thing I would like to send people into the weekend thinking about is financials. All the big financials had unhealthy action today in addition to not closing at the highs as the major indexes did. It was not good. WFC, C, JPM, BAC, AIG, GS...and a host of others all posted bearish chart patterns that look like they are going to resolve soon...start doing some research...additionally this pennant looks like a continuation pattern...its about to get interesting by the looks of things.

Additionally, the transports did not have an especially strong day either...

Have a great weekend.

Testing, Testing, Testing...this is NOT a drill.




Some little thoughts for tomorrow...

Everyone and their brother, mother and grand-mother has been watching the "incredible, death defying VIX 2-Sigma buy signal". I would like to point out that this market has had a way of fooling many commonly accepted interpretations of signals such as Hindenburg, the VIX, Put/Call and Bullish percent signals. While it would be nice to see this a signal actually work for a change, the past VIX signals have been less than spectacular and stand a very good chance of continuing to be unpredictable or unreliable.

Additionally, I prefer to use log charts and on log charts all the bearish wedges have broken out to the downside as you can see from my SP500 chart posted earlier this week. As a recommendation, I would consider setting up charts in both Linear and Log Scaling for any index that you may be analysing as this will clue you into what the markets are seeing more as a whole. Some people prefer the linear charts some the Log charts. Its good to be aware of both.

I am posting these comments, as there are considerable cross winds in the markets here.

Here's a look at the wedge target os a rather sloppy pattern on the ES 24 hours globex futures contract. Keep in mind that this patten only appears on the futures contract...the cash market does not reflect this pattern at all. But sometimes this is somewhat useful to setup target ranges...


Here's a look at another pattern that is much better and also the rage lately with all the conflicted market action and internal dissonances...the Megaphone or expanding bearish wedge...

Former leaders are cracking...lets look at Apple

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

This ISN'T working...

A view of the S&P500...

Its funny, post history everyone will want to blame a sell off in the markets on Libya. The reality is that the Mr. Market has a mind of his own that is very difficult to understand. Sometimes he wants to go up when there is only bad news and even while Egypt wants to rebel and put at risk the largest oil stores in the world and sometimes he wants to go down when a little country with a relatively small amount of Oil contributed to the world oil markets is also falling into revolution. The reality, is that the markets were going to go down regardless of Libya and seemed to want to go up regardless of the any reasonable analysis of Benny BURNake and the Ink Jets, the Banks, the manipulated data or the vast amount of unemployment. Below is an example of why...a 35 year trend line can do the trick especially when combined with a 75% retracement from the highs.

The Dollar the REAL story...not this dollar collapse scam...

Click on charts for a more detailled view.
For more information please read this post: Dollar Scenario
 
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