Monday, August 31, 2009

Market Observations

Without doing an analysis of volume...the price patterns for the SPX have completed a break of a previous swing low. Looks like we are in wave 4 of what under my view should become 5 waves down from the high. If we DO get 5 waves down this will confirm a change of direction for the market as a new impulsive wave.

What I would like to see is more of a retest of the the broken trend line as an a-b-c bounce for wave 4 and then wave 5 down to complete wave 1. If that is not the case, which I am prepared for the incongruence between the Gold, Silver, Oil and Dollar markets will tell us what will happen. If the Dollar fails to break out then its up to a new high - most likely with Gold and Silver tagging along. However, the VIX is stalking its down trend line...and may break out if we do get a wave 5 down to this impulse for wave 1.

A break of the lower trend line confirms Primary wave 3 is in progress...though I think we should be able to tell before then.

I will make more comments later...but some steady progress today.

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