Monday, August 9, 2010

Euro getting ripe...

Still a little ways to go to get back to the mean...but we are getting there...good idea to keep an eye on the Euro around these levels...the mean currently is in the 1.365 to 1.38 area. We do not need to hit that level and can reverse earlier. Currently we are at nice .786 levels and as the post says the Euro is looking ripe...but the mean targets are a very significant area and may be even more significant if stocks manage to breakout to the upside of the bearish rising wedge that nearly everyone seems to be watching. Given the popularity of the bearish wedge pattern, I would expect at least an over through on the major markets to trap bulls and squeeze bears.

One more note, I see a lot of comments about another pattern...inverse head and shoulders. However, the best form for a head and shoulders involves a slanting neckline in the direction of the breakout level. Currently, the patten does not look like a very good quality head and shoulders pattern...if we do break out of the current pattern as it stands now, I would think its at high risk to fail not too long after taking out shorts and stops and sucking in buyers. The small caps are underperforming significantly...if they continue to do so if the market breaks out of the current patterns that would be a significant negative for any rally. If however the relative performance for the small caps gains strength that would lend itself to the idea that we could have more staying power to the markets current support levels.
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