Tuesday, June 7, 2011

And the trade is...

...the dollar. The thing is that the dollar is a slippery beast. I have been unwilling to miss the trade so I have a large long position in the dollar again with an average price of 74.25 ish on the $DXY - some a little higher and some a little lower. The reality is that the dollar as with a lot of currencies likes to push traders to the point at which they feel totally humiliated and wrong before they make real men out of them by getting most to flip the other direction only to get smoked. It looks like the pattern for the dollar is setting up to be a double bottom. In any case, the selling is without volume conviction and similarly for the euro the patterns are within hours of being complete. The reversal may be soft meaning that people barely notice the dollar beginning its change in direction or the reversal may be brutal. Given this market, I would lend to the which ever feels like the least likely...I am long dollar and flat most of the shorts that I took on the equity markets near the highs. This year has turned out to yield exceptional trading results and I am grateful for that. Its my view that the biggest trade of the year will be the currencies - long dollar and short euro - both of which I am in size.
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