Wednesday, November 30, 2011

A general comment…I post a single view and risk perspective...

Given that I also keep my trading approach similar, the more options you have the worse you trade. I would like my readers to know that I am short…yes, indeed I am, and today was not my favorite day of all time...however, I am very happy with the gifts that I get and today was likely one. Additionally, my performance for the month, this month alone, for pools ended up double digits positive…Ofcourse, the numbers would have been better without today but I think next month will not be a snoozer for anyone and I am prepared.

Yes, I am quite pessimistic here and I think history has a precedent for being extremely pessimistic when these types of things happen. The Australian Dollar has made an epic move today (multi sigma) that usually is reversed highly dramatically. The euro could not get follow through on its ramp...we will see how it continues to play out - I am not optimstic. The markets are at major resistance. I can be early, but usually my trades are successful and often very highly so…I have no waffle room in the way I do things…either it works or it does not.

One thing we know for sure, December will not likely make it easy for most market participants.

I would like to make another comment, I make no apologies for laying it on the line…on a day like today, it is easy for the pot to call the kettle black…so, indeed, I had been the recipient of such messages. However, as I have said many times before, I can manage being wrong much better than flipping my view or taking a bunch of unnecessary losses. What is going on in this economy and with the powers that be in the system is something that I take very personally, I do use my blog to talk about it. I depise the abundance of misinformation and the distortions propogated by the mass media and populists that get people setup in just the wrong position at just the wrong time, over and over again. What is happening in this system is beyond trading, it is much more dangerous and I seek to discuss those issues on these pages.  I do not pretend to be perfect, nor do I aim to sell a trading information service. I simply provide my best views (what are often wrong) to you. I appreciate your readership and I enjoy writing on this blog even when things are challenging. For me those moment are the most important because is then that you can learn something and also then that you can see the character of all. I seek to be humble and I base my views and trading systems on the premise that I will be wrong, in doing so, I believe that successful results are and have been much easier to attain.

I encourage all in the trading business to do the same. Don’t have a wishywashy approach - take a stand. It is much easier to adjust when one does so. This trade and my view is now much higher probability of playing out that at any point previously…it takes work to make sure that you are aligning yourself and views in that manner…Though I will not be championing the success of my view (which I have high confidence in, incidentally) on this blog, I am confortable humbly addressing the challenges of it so far, and wanted to do so publically.
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