Sunday, March 18, 2012

Confidence and Optimism at a Momentum Overshoot...

The above chart is a systematically generated analysis. Meaning the red indications have been calculated not manually rendered.

Back when I shorted silver in the upper 40's optimism was at a similar extreme towards commodities...however, I am reminded of that in a very different way...iParabola from AAPL...its the exact same attitude, only AAPL means more to the Nasdaq and the S&P500's head remaining in the clouds than any other asset. Clearly, people who shorted the bearish engulfing weekly pattern recently are being forcibly extracted from their positions and other people are chasing a dream...both will not likely last. With things in the financial system now worse than ever. With derivatives counterparty risk now at the highest extremes in history...JPM should be not be increasing its dividend and using cash to buy back shares. Our illustrious investment banking community is now at risk of more margin calls than at anytime I can ever remember. And people think this market can only go up! On what, more and more leverage from firms already at risk of major collateral calls!

In any case, some traders are only seeing up and up with abandon...never mind that most of the traders I know who have had this view have generally been wrong - with the exception of during this abnormal market dynamic.
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