Interesting charts - non confirmations...

Problem charts...very interesting non confirmations

Market Observations

VIX was up today...the whole day including from the gap up. Utilities Continued their lackluster hold of support at their channel. XLF head and shoulders are progressing nicely. Breadth was not great today...2.9 to 1.

The story of the day was the dollar which fulfilled the Ending Diagonal potential that I have previously discussed. There could be a small throw over...but overall the Dollar's down move looks finished and counts pretty close to complete. Therefore, this up move in the market is on VERY thin ice. I had been worried that the move down in the dollar could be time consuming...but am pleasantly surprised that it essentially hit my targets in 1.5 days. That shortens this rebound in the stock markets considerably.

DBA was down today regardless of the dollar and Oil traded weakly even though it was up. I was trading oil and made most of the money shorting it.

DBA - Ready for wave 5 down?

After a very long wave 4...DBA, despite Jim Rogers prognostications, looks rather negative here...again Tuesday is make or break. Given that the weakness in the dollar did not help DBA and the condition of oil - this does look like 4th time could be a charm. If indeed this is occurring this is a picture of deflation in progress...and likely herald the same for the stock markets.

Just a simple chart...

Utilities also made a very unconvincing bounce after their pullback...its at a support area could try to bounce a bit more...but looks weak.

Junk Bonds ratio to treasuries sport a completed impulse wave. This is something to keep an eye on.