Extremes are everywhere...

Yes, I have seen the risks in the market as biased towards the downside in the bigger picture and yes, I thought the limits of the counter risks were in the 1,312 to 1,318 area on the S&P and yes, I clearly underestimated the deleveraging pressures that are driving this asset ramp…but that’s exactly what is happening, the deleveraging and resolution/derisking of derivatives obligations and portfolios in the financial system - especially European - triggered by and exacerbated by implications/clear effort to undermine contract payouts and settlements by central planners and their facilitators are driving very contrived and unnatural fractal behavior in the markets including the current  overthrows.

Usually, on bullish moves, close to close price variances are somewhat noisy and diffuse - this creates opportunity to trade. However, in these last moves in the markets, the activity driving upside price momentum is much more akin to the normal forces driving downside activity and contain little noise or price variation. At this point, the extremeness of this ultra smooth condition is TOTALLY UNPRECEDENTED. The smoothness of the data series and the collapse of traditional correlations and orderly behavior is being pushed to its limits. 

Whether one buys into the jobs report from yesterday or not…the momentum in the markets has been unsound and unprecedented in its character - as I suspect the reaction to it will also be as the current derivatives deleveraging winds down and reverts to a more normal asset to capital deleveraging process rather than the reverse. We do need to be aware that the derivatives markets are in the 800 trillion range and the obligations which are now being addressed simply in those markets alone are able to drive absolutely unprecedented behavior in markets in ways that one would never normally associate with deleveraging.

For what its worth, the bounces off the lows in the major equity indexes as shown below ARE clear A-B-C patterns and what’s more are picture perfect at symmetry. I NEVER in my imagination thought that the large one-to-one symmetry that is most common in A-B-C patterns would actually play out. I was wanted to be early as I felt getting to a 62% to 76% projection of wave A would be far more likely. Clearly, I have been very wrong with that view…and as implied, early with it as well. However, that does not change the fact that we have now reached nearly perfect symmetry and VERY long-term resistance at the same time and the reactions should be significant. 

Could this be one reason there is little commitment shown in the rally...

Where is the volume?

May the selling begin...since there is nothing to worry about

As another twisted report is issued...euro is breaking down and equities are only up a little bit from yesterday's highs...for examples the MidCaps 400 is only up 5 points from its high yesterday so far...in addition the major trend lines I have been trading have not been reached on any of the indexes...not exactly a ringing endorsement...after there remnants of shorts are purged from their positions the selling should begin.

Though I do not watch financial television generally, today was an exception and a quote that epitomizes the sentiment related to this jobs report..."Isn't is so great now that we don't have to worry anymore and everything is fine...now we can relax"...

It looks like the dollar is going to gain strength against nearly all currencies...

Could this have something to do with the dollar shortage that is being exacerbated by the handling of the CDS contracts by banks and regulators and by reference applies to all derivatives contracts? What we are seeing if you have read my previous posts on the subject from last weekend is that regulators are protecting a few major banks and willing to invalidate derivative contracts in such a way as to directly harm counterparties by ensuring that the contracts to not pay out, but that the premium writer gets to keep the fees - only without the risk or contractual obligation. IN the big picture the dollar is shown below and looks like it setting up to get stronger versus most of its index currencies.

Some more indexes...

Chart patterns are maturing...

MUCH lower rates ahead...

With European Dollar Swaps at new extremes...the dollar shortage is acute and likely to blow up at any moment - which in this case will drive lower treasury rates. Ironically, this dollar shortage has probably been a part of the deleveraging that has driven the equity market ramp...but that kind of deleveraging WILL break into outright selling also...and it seems like the setup is there for that.

It not necessary that markets needed to go down immediately as SWAP lines increased dramatically -  since many of these banks deleveraging and using the FX Swap lines have obligations to deliver as promised for derivatives and using these swap lines a sign of desperation. Incidentally, this is why I have referred to this crazy ramp in risk assets as a deleveraging.

Some shorter timeframe charts

With European Dollar Swaps at new extremes...the dollar shortage is acute and likely to blow up at any moment.

Charts of a wild market

CRB was down today at the same time as equities were up. Additionally, the Russell hit a good extension off the moves off the lows of last year in aswell as a significant trendline off the rally from 2009 lows. Nasdaq 100 is also running into resistance and all of this action was not confirmed by the VIX which did not get anywhere making new lows. Meanwhile the DAX is at the convergence of resistance after filling its gap.

Dollar in massive SUPER bullish pattern..and ready for breakout...

On a longer term pattern…the dollar looks to be putting in a bigger cup and handle.

Head and Shoulders and loss of momentum finally showing up...

Head and shoulder patterns in Euro, Dow, S&P and many other markets…Looks like a reversal setting up for today. As an observation, the ultra low volatility grind up since December has been the lowest downside volatility rally in the history of the S&P500 for the data I have. It represents one of the few times that my systems were unable to optimally adapt to this type of market volatility for their postive risk management. I have already addressed the issue and it will of course turn a frustrating month into a great benefit. I expect the trades to close well…it is quite stunning the absolute lack of volume and the lack of volatility to the downside. The influences that have caused this action are clear…deleveraging and central planning. The markets are officially a mess, and have fulfilled their destiny to behave exactly like what they have become for the moment -  centrally planned vehicles.

In my opinion, the EURO is now on its way to the 1.12 target I have been presenting consistently. I also believe that the divergence between bonds and equities and the EURO and equities will resolve with equities reverting - not the other way around.

The Great Escape from the EURO is on...

Greece looks to pull an Iceland…seeks to exit stage left as Central Planners prove no lie is too big, no manipulation too small and no truth is too relevant...

As if there were any other choice, with support like Merkel’s, the ECB’s the IMF’s and others, Greece will surely be forced to default again on any agreement and haircut they make now…only interestingly, Greece, as well as investors targeted by these groups as victims will lose their investment, insurance payouts and premiums as the elites have planned…all so a few insolvent and over leveraged banks may continue to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes. Any agreement made with Greece will surely result in another default…even if the current agreement results in a 70% loss for investors not counting hedges and premiums. Even though replacing current bonds with a different bond at a haircut and with a new rate maturing in 30 years is still likely to result in default…it will allow zombie banks to pretend and extend. Too bad Greece knows the best way out of this is to pull an Iceland...

Greece plans an orderly exit out of the Eurozone according to two sources close to Mr. Papademos, Greek Prime Minister, who spoke on condition of anonymity earlier today. 

The sources confirmed that plans are ready to return to a legacy currency given the current circumstances and that such exit would be dealt with, quote “in as orderly a fashion as possible” unquote.

Greece plans orderly exit of the Eurozone 

However, the banking elite, have on the public stage, proven that they are not to be trusted via the desperation and urgency of their predicament. Their need is to extend and pretend whether its practical, reasonable or honest…all things that are required for business to succeed. Their actions and their undermining of contracts and trust will not go unnoticed. In addition, they will not succeed and CDS will trigger.

Remember this is NOT about Greece, its about insolvecy underneath all the CDS that has been written to generate phantom revenue for banks to cover up losses and pay bonuses and its about the  deleveraging of the system. Greee is just the tripwire.

Central Planners and Financial Engineers attempt to default Credit Defaults

Given my previous post, I wanted to discuss the implications of this totally unethical and convoluted maneuver designed to execute a default but call it something else and thus attempt to avoid triggering credit default contracts. The implications as I have said are dire. One of the key things our central planning financial engineers are doing is attempting to prevent these insolvency triggering contracts from bankrupting their buddies and revealing just how wide spread mismarking and accounting control fraud are in presenting an image of solvency when underneath lies a rotting carcass.

The situation as it exists in the markets, is now VERY similar to 2007 and 2008 when people realized that they could not execute on complex derivatives the way they expected. Only this time its MUCH bigger and its NOT just Greece that contains the issue. This last major phase of the ponzi scheme that has become our financial system has been constructed with leveraged accounting instruments. Every time someone needs to create more liquidity they can do it by creating arbitrary agreements with nearly no limits on leverage. Of course, the limits are "bankruptcy" and if you pocket a lot of coin before going BK then you are likely not to be that concerned with the bankruptcy part. Banks, in fact, are already generally insolvent, so these accounting tools allow them to present the masquerade that they are NOT. Reality, however, is that what is going on in Europe now is demonstrating that there is a much bigger issue than simply counter party risk. Its aggresive and desperate central planning and financial engineering risks.

Right now IF you own CDS, the clear and present goal of officials is to make sure that your premium becomes worthless and that you NEVER get paid the insurance. It does not matter that the Greece notional is not that large, what matters is the agenda. But this is what is happening as a result of the efforts of officials and the issues that I raised in the previous post. This is not that different from the credibility problem that the market has already suffered because regulators can not keep track of firms like MF Global even when they are in their offices for weeks and weeks before they manage to abscond with vast amounts of supposedly segregated capital.

One of the tenets of our financial system is supposed to be "trust". Officials from the Fed, ECB, IMF, IIF and other three letter acronyms are doing their level best to prevent too large to fail institutions from blowing up by playing havoc with trust needed to ensure that people believe that their contracts and accounts actually are what they appear and can be executed the way they say they can be executed. If there is a failure with these mechanics, the system fails - and especially since it is so completely overleveraged.

The meetings in Athens with the troika and IIF are conveluting and corrupting the basis of trust that hyper leverage via derivatives requires. Of course this is not the first time. The same thing happened in 2008.

The Disconnection of Trust...

Now we are staring down the barrel of a major disconnection within the financial system. A disconnection of trust. So, no matter what the officials and negotiators come up with this weekend, there is one clear result: Greece will have defaulted. The other result will be that officials will make clear that when push comes to shove, they have no respect for contracts in general and especially the contract based derivative financial instruments that are, in fact, the only thing allowing the system to pretend to be functional now. If you happen to own some of these instruments then you are faced with the same questions that many people who had money at risk in transactions with AIG, Lehman and Bear Stearns. Their answer was to short the stocks of these firms as hedges against their impending defaults. Of course, deleveraging and defaults are anything but orderly…so, the best laid plans tend to become something other than intended, and many were forced to resort to the less than elegant approach of selling these companies and other companies short as protection.

So, with the ECB and its cohorts willing to stop at nothing to make sure individual investors are mauled and tortured…what would you do if you could not count on your CDS to trigger or pay off due to counterparty or event risk? Why, you would probably look for another method, likely not so dissimilar to situation in 2008. This would lead you to short the EURO directly in order to execute what turns out to be a synthetic version of CDS.

Ironcally, this is in fact exactly what is happening. The huge increase in short interest in the EURO is not just speculation - its protection. So, despite the rally in the EURO over the last nine session the short open position has increased each week - currently at 197,818 contracts up from 181,662 contracts two weeks ago. It is not likely going to go away anytime soon. The central planners have done everything they can to force people into not being able to trust the most basic assumptions and truths that they needed to function in our or any financial system…so now the result is synthetic CDS applied via currencies and betting against the entire corrupt system as protection.

The Greek debt deal and backroom...

The news, especially apparently CNBC, is populated with tons prognostication and rhetoric about a Greek debt deal. I would like to make it clear that these prognostications and marketing attempts are simply that. They are hot air. Lets take a closer look at what is going on and then come to a conclusion that actually has relevance.

In recent history, bureaucrats have been trying to get various exceptions or adjustments into supposedly free markets for debt insurance - called CDS - Credit Default Swaps. The concept of a CDS is simple: in the event that counter party is unable to repay within terms CDS protection will compensate the buyer commensurate with the amount defaulted. Lets take a closer look.

A credit default swap (CDS) is an agreement that the seller of the CDS will compensate the buyer in the event of a loan default. The buyer of the CDS makes a series of payments (the CDS "fee" or "spread") to the seller and, in exchange, receives a payoff if the loan defaults. 

In the event of default the buyer of the CDS receives compensation (usually the face value of the loan), and the seller of the CDS takes possession of the defaulted loan.  

Anyone can purchase a CDS, even buyers who do not hold the loan instrument and who have no direct insurable interest in the loan (these are called "naked" CDSs). If there are more CDSs contracts outstanding than bonds in existence, a protocol exists to hold a credit event auction; the payment received is usually substantially less than the face value of the loan. 

Most CDSs are documented using standard forms promulgated by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA).

CDS’s are not traded on an exchange and there is still no required reporting of transactions even after the AIG debacle. Credit default swaps and other derivatives are unusual--and potentially dangerous--in that they combine priority in bankruptcy with a lack of transparency

Now lets look at what has been going on with the bureaucrats:

Oct 27, 2011 2:03 PM ET
The European Union’s ability to write down 50 percent of banks’ Greek bond holdings without triggering $3.7 billion in debt insurance contracts threatens to undermine confidence in credit-default swaps as a hedge and force up borrowing costs. 

As part of today’s accord aimed at resolving the euro region’s sovereign debt crisis, politicians and central bankers said they “inviteGreece, private investors and all parties concerned to develop a voluntary bond exchange” into new securities. If the International Swaps & Derivatives Association agrees the exchange isn’t compulsory, credit-default swaps tied to the nation’s debt shouldn’t pay out. 

“It will raise some very serious question marks over the value of CDS contracts,” said Harpreet Parhar, a strategist at Credit Agricole SA in London. “For euro sovereigns in particular, the CDS market is likely to remain wary.”

So the pressure right now with regard to Greece is not a negotiation. It is not a haircut and it is not a restructuring of the existing bonds. It is in a desperate phase and its goal is to save the leveraged financial system. The consequences of the a credit event or a credit restructuring in Greece are not to be misunderestimated (thank you George Bush). They are DIRE.

If we were looking at a situation as it is presented with rose colored glasses via the main stream media, then we would ascertain that big countries like France, Germany and the US and a few select institutions control and own almost all the bonds issued by Greece and are thus able to agree to new terms or securities fairly easily. This, however, is a very convenient presentation of situation. However, reality is nothing like that. These bonds are held by Pensions, Hedge funds, Institutions, Central Banks, Individuals and other Sovereigns. 

The managers of the portfolios of many of these investors have bought CDS insurance for their portfolios. Many of them may have a PPM or offering memorandum that discloses their strategy very precisely…this means that many managers have a legally enforcable mandate to trade debt with CDS protection as hedges. 

Imagine if you will, that you are a client of one such a manager and he may have thousands of clients. This manager has a fairly simple scenario. Accept a haircut and restructing of some of his assets that may fall out of his PPM and by the way take 80% losses on principle…not including CDS premiums. The manager can call every one of his clients and get agreement to make an exception for these instruments or more than likely he can call you and say: 

• PM: "Mr. Smith, Greece is offering us 20% of principle on our bonds, the CDS insurance that I bought is worthless and I think we should take the haircut.” 

I think that it is very easy to understand that your response will be very simple: 

• You: "Why were you investing in crap bonds and what the hell were you doing buying worthless insurance with my money. Are you trying to tell me that we invested capital and then another 25% of principle on insurance premiums and we are only going to get back 20% on capital and with some of that coming years from now?”

• PM: “Yes”

• You: “Are you telling me that we have insurance that will pay me back the 80% of princinple that is being defaulted but you want to elect to NOT use that? or is the insurance a fraud?”

• PM: "The insurance is good but officials are trying to get this not to be called a credit event so I am trying to comply with their wishes by simply agreeing to a haircut and tossing the insurnace and the permiums all together. I think its simpler that way, even though its outside our PPM.”

• You: “How many other bonds have similar arrangements and risks regarding their insurance? I thought you told me that we were running a low risk hedged portfolio of sovereign debt…what have you been doing buying insurance that you don’t indend to actually use to get MY MONEY BACK?”

• PM: “A lot of our bond portfolio is hedged with CDS but I think those are good…but you never know the outcomes of situations like this…right now I am just concentrating on trying to get the most principle repayed as fast as possible and not get this a resolution drawn out for years”

• You: “Look is the insurance GOOD or NOT GOOD? if its good I want you to collect and get MY money back. After which I will be sending you my redemption request. What kind of operation are you running and what kind of crazy deals are you willing to make with MY MONEY. I just can’t believe you would buy insurance for 25% of the face value of the note and then elect not to use it and take 20% of face value back instead…

• PM: “Look Mr Smith, please calm down, I am just trying to get an acceptable resolution for us all…”

• You: “You are not succeeding...Hang on while I call my lawyer.”

So, what is clear is that IF there are  few large investors that comprise the biggest holders of debt issued by Greece for example they are accountable to thousands of other clients and will have to negotiate indemnity with all of them in order to agree to a deal that is a clear conflict of interest. One does not buy insurance and then simply ignore that one has it. If you are working for someone else and chose not to file a claim simply because you are being cooeerced to - you can count on getting nailed to the wall. In the case of our imaginary Portfolio Manage above…he stand much better chances with just letting the bonds default, attempting to collect the insurance and then when or if the insurance does not pay demonstrating to his clients that he is not culpable. He may have bought bad bonds and bad insurance but he followed his PPM to the letter and acted ethically at all times. The problem is the other guys who he can now sue…every last one of them…Greece, ECB, the CDS counter party and anyone else he can find. In this case, he can also simply wind down his fund and open a new one. In the alternate case, he will get sued by his clients but with no escape hatch and no one else to blame. Which would you chose if you were a PM? I would choose to follow my PPM and live with the consequences. I would find it far more productive to tell a client about a disaster than to try to force feed them an even bigger one and get all the accompanying liability and culpability.

A simple way to think of this is that you borrow money from a friend, say $100,000. You run into a financial difficulty and let your friend know that you need to restructure or default. In that case, you are dealing with just one person and its fairly easy for both of you to determine the implications. However, if your friend who lent you the money, used money from 20 other sources at $5,000 each to fund your loan…then this is no longer just between you and him…he has responsibilities to his partners or clients. Additionally, if he committed to them that he had purchased some sort of default protection, these participants will not be interested in hearing about how much he likes you or wants to avoid confrontation or the results of him getting kicked out the apartment he rents from you when you can not longer afford it because you are in default and he is required to collect. His partners will want to collect from you and the insurance…any interference or alternate scenario painted by your friend (in the PM) in this case, will result in much more conflict and risk for him than if he just attempts to collect and deals with the consequences. His 20 participants can accept if the insurance does not pay because the counter party risk blows up and that is not expected…however, the reality is they will ALL look at the insurance as a high probability asset and the restructuring as a much lower one. 

“It has always been understood that the restructuring definition cannot catch all possible events,” according to the statement. “If a creditor is hedging using CDS, and declines to participate in a voluntary restructuring, then the creditor would still hold its original debt claim and its CDS hedge.”

The implications of what is going on this weekend are huge…there is NO possibility that a reasonable solution can be negotiated if there are portfolios of individuals rather than taxpayers involved. The consequences are too great for the PM’s and the participants will want their protection that they expected and paid for to be executed and settled. The results of that however, will be total economic upheaval in Europe and will spread to the US. The CDS and derivatives overhang is a huge issue and will not go away anytime soon. Over leveraged balance sheets are supported entirely by assumptions made based on their derivatives hedges and the fact that they can and will be executed. What we are seeing is direct interference in the transactability of these contracts and that is notwithstanding the fact that the financial system does not have enough money to transact on them.

There is just no way to bureaucratically interfere with every deal or to entice people into participating in a far less attractive one. Certainly, it would be that much more challenging to get a deal even in discussion if risk markets were tanking…so, the January risk rally has been rather helpful, to say the least.

There will be no miracle deal…even if there is an announcement it will effctively be a default and WILL include a CDS trigger...if there is no deal and no possibility of a reprieve then Greece can not get its financing from ECB. Without that financing they can not make their next payments and moreover, the CDS market will execute, spread and prove just who is not wearing underwear in this 2012 version of our 2008 financial crisis.

The CDS and derivatives issue is absolutely stupendous. If Greece CDS will be forced to execute then it will be the same for Portugal, Belgium, Spain, Italy and a host of other countries not to mention institutions…the mad rush for cash and liquidity will happen much faster than people think and will run into a brick wall as people realize that the is not enough money in the system to settle the transactions. Did you buy your dollars yet?