Thursday, September 10, 2009

Market Observations

Below is a chart with all the critical trend lines for the SP500. Additionally, the projection of the optimal turn date for Primary wave 2 or B (depending on nomenclature)...

The irony is that the bottom was at 666 and the turn date starts 9/11/09...this is indicated by the magenta line on the chart. If that were to be the relationship that were to occur which does not seem unlikely then its truly an astounding coincidence. I referred to these two data points in some previous posts.

Also, keep in mind that earnings estimates for the third quarter at $14 for the SP500. That works out to a P/E of 75. This is an astounding number especially when earnings have significant risk of coming in much lower than that. Earnings expectations for this past quarter were cut by nearly 50% already. Companies can beat those lowered expections...but that does not fix the fact that earnings are low and going lower.

Below is a chart of the NDX.  We are in a serious resistance zone here...Two rising wedges at once. Perhaps we get a throw over and then fall through the bottom of the wedge.

Below is XLF, head and shoulders pattern continues to be valid. Financials have not been participating in the rally. Maybe, it more of a short squeeze in general since most of the financial shorts have been decimated well before now...Seems like we have to progress through the whole market squeezing every sector until its rung dry.

The RUT has a confluence of resistance above...seems like the next few days may get interesting. RUT has has had an especially strong rally. I wonder what the crash will be like?
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