Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Market Observations - One Chart

Only one chart is necessary to guide us for the next few days. The breakout or retrace on the dollar chart below.

I do not see a high likelihood of a test of the lows on this pattern at this time. Additionally, that would also setup an entirely different scenario. But I do think we may have a small argument with the downtrend line immediately above. This resistance level was rejected today. Perhaps we get a retrace back to the 75.60 to 75.80 area. That would afford the market some upward bias consolidation.

However, it may also be possible that we open with a breakout of this downtrend line. In which case I would think that we see very heavy buying of the dollar. 77.40 would be the nearest target in that case. That would set up a range day down potential for the indexes. Personally, as the markets are oversold, I would like to see some bounce or even rally here and thus a pullback in the Dollar...but this market has not been in the habit of doing what we want it or expect it to. So, given the bearishness of the the sentiment for the dollar, there is a lot of pressure to breakout of this resistance area. So, that is the signal I am looking for.

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