Saturday, October 24, 2009

Short-Term Dollar Chart - but still unfinished business

Below is a chart from Mathew Fraily from yesterday...its great chart of the short-term dollar

Please see his blog: here

and here is an updated view version from today

Interestingly, in my brief look at the dollar today, since it is the main symbol I watch these days, looks like it could have a continued near-term bounce...but it still looks like it has work to do on the downside to create an emotional bottom...this is also reinforced because Gold, Silver, Oil, DBA and some other commodities look like they still have an up move left. Gold targets 1085 to 1090, DBA 27.8 to 28 and Oil 87 to 90. Perhaps we get a gap down in the equity markets and a rise in the dollar on Monday am...followed by a chaotic few days of trading with big reversals. I do think that a new low in the dollar will not result in a new high for most of the equity markets...but commodities look like they will be more sensitive to the move...and could produce nice parabolic type tops.

If there ever were contrarian indicators, they are popping up all over the place, Saudi Arabia, Faber, Weiss to name a few recent ones. Now, Lazard, ostensibly for marketing purposes, is changing currency denomination for their World Trust Fund to Pound Sterling. Anytime the basis for a decision is mass market perception - you can count on one thing. Its popular and wrong.
Change of share trading currency and proposed sub-division
In response to comments from a number of shareholders and potential investors in the Fund about the liquidity of the Fund’s shares, the Board, having consulted with the Fund’s brokers, Arbuthnot Securities, believes that having a larger number of shares in issue with a lower share price than at present and changing the currency in which the shares are traded from US dollars to Sterling, should assist in improving the marketability and liquidity of the Fund’s shares and support the attraction and retention of a diverse shareholder base.
Change of share trading currency – the London Stock Exchange has confirmed that the currency in which the Fund’s shares are traded will change from US dollars to Sterling with effect from 8.00 am on Friday 30 October 2009.
© 2009 m3, ltd. All rights reserved.