Friday, July 23, 2010

ES Setup and the coming short...

The market is whacked, suffering from Fed-itis...the de-leveraging continues...bankrupting shorts in squeezes and bankrupting longs in panics. This market wants to move beyond probable levels to trigger false breakouts and breakdowns to ensure that it fulfills its "whacked" delegation.

These types of triggers, false breakouts and reversals, most frequently occur at derivative fibonacci levels not the primary ones. 1.272, 1.128 and .886 are the strongest magnets for people to think they misinterpreted the trade are are wrong footed. If we get follow through strength tomorrow, a powerful reversal is most probable in the region that I marked. (1106 to 1112 on the ES futures). Also, I would like to note that the reason these levels are important is that EVERYONE and their brother is watching the .382, .618 and .786 levels and virtually no one watches the derived levels...which is why they are natural psychological and fractal targets.

A reversal there will convince many market participants to play the upside breakout and buy any weakness thereafter...The caveat is, the weakness will actually be the follow through to last weeks probe to the downside that I posted about and that we traded.

The systems covered beautifully and are setup for shorts here. The income system for ES took entries this afternoon on the close in the 1091 area.

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