Thursday, August 5, 2010

World ending and recovering...which one is it?

The chart affirms my previous statements...the 10 year treasury hit highs in 2008 on sheer panic. It has traded very technically and just broke out over a cycle - this puts it in trend mode if that 121 22/32 holds. But what the market is not reflecting is panic. What we are seeing is de-leveraging. Expect de-leveraging to continue and make market dynamics to continue to be unpredictable. 

Why not rally on terrible jobs data based on clearly fraudulent/optimistically biased government statistics published at the most optimistic values possible and constantly revised downward, GDP, ISM, Jobs, Housing - you name it and the government is publishing the best numbers they can imagine and subsequently revising them down for several months or quarters thereafter. Notice they never understate any numbers and subsequently revise them upwards. The numbers are singularly too optimistic...everytime. This kind of consistent distortion has all the probabilities of 4 major banks not having a single losing trading day in 63 trading days without priority dealings involved.

The distortion is a coordinated effort. Coordinated by whom? By the same guys who think Maiden Lane Holdings portfolio of bankrupt Bear Stearns hotel assets can be marked as worth 67 billion dollars - fully 6 billion higher than the initial overstated number they say it was worth when they took the assets on. JP Morgan would have nothing to do with these assets and many of them are in receivership, yet the regulator is totally fine overstating their values...who is directing the charade? The fed of course...and Obama and congress are all beholden to these guys...

The same authenticity being applied to data is currently being applied to market prices...I mean non-market prices (not to mention OpEd pieces). It is not making things better either.
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