Tuesday, July 26, 2011


I apologize for my absence. I have been travelling a lot, working on a monumentally complex release and have had a death in the family at the end of the week last week. I will be travelling to Europe this week because of that...so, I am not really getting a break from travelling quite yet. The reality is also that I see that my last post is the only one necessary to understand this market. I see the debt ceiling issue triggering a sell-off in both equities and the dollar and the result setting up one of the best trades in history. In any case, for reference, given where the dollar is trading...the EURO should be at 1.475, the SP500 Futures should be at 1,368, the Russell futures should be at 870 and the Oil should be at 114. As you can see that is not the case. I indicated in my previous post that I did not believe that the euro would make its maximum projection of 1.52...That is playing out according to plan. The dollar looks set to reach 70ish...eaking out a new low. I see the EURO as a better short than the dollar is long...however, either will be an awesome trade. As you are most likely aware...we closed our dollar longs at the 77 area for a very nice profit. The only chart worth watching in my opinion is the inverted dollar chart that I posted a few weeks ago...all the attributes in that chart are playing out to a tee. The EURO is continuing to under perform relative to the dollar as are all risk markets and the dollar trade is turning into a highly emotional and debilitating trade for most. For those who are currently loving their dollar shorts, I would recommend taking profits aggressively as the dollar reversal will likely be brutal and highly persistent.
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