Where the indexes stand now

Monthly pivot on SPX is 1110 and seems ike a magnet should bounce somewhere below there and then resume the decline IMO.

Great Chart of the Russell 2000 Futures

No Comments needed here...I have not updated this chart for a month at least.

We could still get one more throwover to the upside...then the pattern would be extremely high probability.

Dollar Update

It looks like we could get some divergent trading action between the indexes and the dollar...there is an alternative for the indexes which considers the pattern complete. But for now things look up...ironically for both the dollar and the indexes.

1. One scenario we should prepare for is a gap up to the 1044 to 1049 area on the GDP numbers and immediate selling on the cash markets. (chart is below)
2. The other scenario is that the market has topped already at the 1038 SP500 area and that we are already in wave 3 down or at best in the middle of wave 2 flat of some sort of a down impulse pattern. (no chats of these patterns in this post since i am not leaning in that direction)
   

Right now, my trades are concentrating on the dollar as that chart is clear. The indexes are not clear yet and may rally a bit with the dollar. But if gold fails that wedge and the dollar breaks its huge falling wedge then its likely the market will not be able to hold up.

Technically, the indexes look like they may want another high...but the dollar looks like its in a bullish falling wedge (possibly a very small wave 4). (See chart 1) I have included count for the dollar. (See chart 2) Initial targets are for the 81.3 area...with higher targets possible. The larger structure points considerably higher than that.

Also, note that the volume was the highest of the pattern and very light in the decline.

I know the small charts are hard to read...but click on the for a larger view then it is clear.

Falling Wedges on the Dollar longer-term

Bearish pattern on Gold unless it takes out 972 on GDP tomorrow.

Possible Tri Star Candle formation on the indexes

It appears that if todays daily candle on the $spx and the $compq closes around the present postion we would have what Steve Nison (the candle pro) refers to as the tri star pattern.


Such a pattern is essentially made up of 3 doji candles with the middle doji day being more shooting star. The psychology behind the pattern goes along the lines  that the market has probably been in an uptrend or downtrend for a long time. 


Obviously in this case an uptrend. With the trend starting to show weakness  bodies are becoming smaller. 

• The first Doji would cause concern. 
• The second would indicate little direction left in the market  

and he indicates that the

• The third doji would put the nail in the coffin of this trend.

Because this indicates entirely too much indecision,everyone with any conviction would be reversing positions .In this case obviously from long to short.As he says this pattern is EXTREMELY rare and so when it occurs it shouldn't be ignored.
thanks to hurricanemalta