Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Dollar Update

It looks like we could get some divergent trading action between the indexes and the dollar...there is an alternative for the indexes which considers the pattern complete. But for now things look up...ironically for both the dollar and the indexes.
  1. One scenario we should prepare for is a gap up to the 1044 to 1049 area on the GDP numbers and immediate selling on the cash markets. (chart is below)
  2. The other scenario is that the market has topped already at the 1038 SP500 area and that we are already in wave 3 down or at best in the middle of wave 2 flat of some sort of a down impulse pattern. (no chats of these patterns in this post since i am not leaning in that direction)
Right now, my trades are concentrating on the dollar as that chart is clear. The indexes are not clear yet and may rally a bit with the dollar. But if gold fails that wedge and the dollar breaks its huge falling wedge then its likely the market will not be able to hold up.

Technically, the indexes look like they may want another high...but the dollar looks like its in a bullish falling wedge (possibly a very small wave 4). (See chart 1) I have included count for the dollar. (See chart 2) Initial targets are for the 81.3 area...with higher targets possible. The larger structure points considerably higher than that.

Also, note that the volume was the highest of the pattern and very light in the decline.

I know the small charts are hard to read...but click on the for a larger view then it is clear.

Falling Wedges on the Dollar longer-term
Bearish pattern on Gold unless it takes out 972 on GDP tomorrow.

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