Thursday, August 27, 2009

Dollar- Pattern still valid but probabilities shift

The dollar made it to the top of the wedge and was rejected - rather viciously this afternoon. This resulted a break of support at the wave 1 high for this wave at 78.42. Triggering a 78.38 stop. That break resulted in a volume move down just ticks above the previous lows at 77.87. Clearly this is creating a different pattern.

Critical for the dollar market tomorrow is the lower green trend line below. That may hold but it seems more likely that the dollar bottom will be carved out of lower prices. Most likely a falling wedge with targets in the 76.70 area if the trend line on chart 1 breaks.
© 2009 m3, ltd. All rights reserved.