Thursday, August 27, 2009

Market observations

Wednesday and Today resulted in small McClellan Oscillator changes - today's is  -11, that suggest a trend or range day or two will occur starting tomorrow or Monday

My concern was that a test of the lower wedge on the dollar could occur if the breakout was rejected...that seems likely at this point given that the market still sports the structure for wave 4 with a wave 5 up finish. As much as I would like to believe that the Euro's and Dollars crazy moves could somehow be capitulatory, they seem to fit with this market structure for the indexes at least for the short term. The dollar does not have much lower to go nor does it seem that the market has much higher to go...however, as my friend Mathew Fraily at Breakpoint Trades has been repeatedly pointing out...there is a thin zone above 1050 on the SPX...that could give us a blow off type move...something that is difficult to rationalize with the market being this overvalued and overextended. But perhaps its not out of context to recognize that there is this magnet to the 1044 to 1049 area...and with the McClellan suggesting a large range day move the possibility of some momentum up could be significant. 
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